Market Update December 2024
Industry Market Trends
GENERAL MARKET TRENDS
Fuel Index:
- Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.539/gallon
- Last Week: $3.491/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.048
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.607
Summary: Diesel prices have experienced a modest increase week-over-week, influenced by seasonal demand, refinery capacity issues, and geopolitical developments. Despite lower prices compared to last year, the upcoming administration’s tariff proposals on imports could elevate fuel costs further in Q1 2025. Analysts estimate a potential 5-10% increase in diesel prices should tariffs be implemented, driving inflationary pressures across the supply chain. However, a potential shift in domestic energy policies, such as the expansion of refining and drilling, may stabilize or lower costs in the medium term, as seen during the previous Trump administration.
Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
RPM Monthly Movers:
- National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (October – November) $0.08
- Reefer Markets (October – November) $0.05
- Flatbed Markets (October – November) $0.04
POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS
- Seasonal Trends: Seasonal demand has created surges in freight movement, particularly in Dry Van and Reefer equipment. E-commerce and holiday retail freight are leading the charge, with volumes peaking on high-demand lanes in the Midwest and Northeast. Reefer equipment remains under pressure as holiday perishables such as produce, meat, and floral shipments increase. This seasonal spike is expected to persist through mid-December, with inventory replenishments extending into early January.
- Construction and Recovery Projects: While the construction market has seen typical seasonal slowdowns, recovery projects tied to recent Gulf Coast storms are sustaining flatbed demand in southern markets. Warm-weather regions, particularly in Texas, Gulf Coast and coastal Appalachia, are seeing consistent demand for building materials and heavy equipment shipments. This activity contrasts with northern regions, where weather conditions and reduced project timelines are curbing flatbed demand.
- Port Operations: Ongoing West Coast Surge – West Coast ports are experiencing elevated activity due to holiday imports and shifts away from East and Gulf Coast labor disruptions. Volume increases of 15-20% have been noted at key hubs like Los Angeles and Seattle. The ongoing labor uncertainty at East Coast ports, particularly with the looming ILA strike deadline on January 15, 2025, has pushed shippers to rely more heavily on West Coast routes. Inland infrastructure is also under pressure as freight is redistributed to mitigate potential delays.
MARKET PREDICTIONS
- Capacity Trends: Tight capacity persists in Dry Van and Reefer markets, driven by holiday demand surges and seasonal weather disruptions. Flatbed capacity remains regionally balanced, with tightness observed in Gulf Coast areas due to recovery projects, while northern regions see easing availability amid construction slowdowns. Weather-related delays, particularly in the Midwest and West Coast, are expected to exacerbate capacity constraints on key freight corridors.
- Rate Trends: Dry Van: spot rates are up +3.8% month-over-month, driven by peak holiday e-commerce and retail activity. Reefer: spot rates show a modest increase of +0.4% month-over-month, bolstered by perishable goods shipments tied to holiday demand. Flatbed: rates have softened by -0.4% month-over-month, reflecting reduced construction activity outside of storm recovery regions in the Gulf Coast.
- Post-December Market: The conclusion of holiday demand will bring a short-lived easing of capacity in January. However, the potential implementation of new tariffs in Q1 2025 may drive a pull-forward of imports, creating near-term volatility. Reefer and Dry Van demand may also see incremental boosts from post-holiday restocking activity.
SEASONAL TRENDS AND CONSUMER DEMAND
- Holiday Shopping: The holiday season is driving heightened demand for Dry Van and Reefer equipment as retailers and e-commerce platforms push to meet peak season delivery schedules. Seasonal surcharges are common on key lanes, particularly in the Midwest, Northeast, and California. Reefer demand is also surging for perishable freight such as produce, dairy, and meat, with tight capacity causing delays on key Southeast and Midwest corridors.
- Produce Season Impact: Reefer markets are seeing elevated demand in port-adjacent regions like Texas and California, where domestic and imported produce moves through distribution networks. Frost risks in the Southeast are also contributing to localized disruptions, making reefer availability critical for time-sensitive shipments.
- Construction and Flatbed Demand: In Flatbed markets are seeing typical seasonal slowdowns in northern regions as weather conditions curb construction activity. However, Gulf Coast and Coastal Appalachia recovery efforts are creating sustained demand for building materials and equipment, balancing regional demand disparities.
TLDR: Seasonal Trends
- Van Shipments: Rates are up due to holiday and weather disruptions. Expect tight capacity and higher rates through December, with a slight post-holiday dip before a potential rebound in early 2025..
- Reefer Shipments: Rates remain elevated due to strong holiday demand and weather-driven disruptions. Expect capacity constraints to persist, with rates staying high through early 2025
- Flatbed Shipments: Rates show seasonal declines, but Gulf Coast and Coastal Appalachia recovery efforts maintain regional demand. Capacity remains steady with typical winter trends through early 2025.
Transportation Events |
Upcoming Holidays |
Gartner Supply Chain Planning Summit, December 3rd – 4th, 2024
Manifest 2025: The Future of Logistics, February 10th – 12th, 2025 Air Cargo Conference, March 2nd-4th, 2025 ProMat 2025, March 17th- 20th, 2025 |
Black Friday & Cyber Monday, Friday, November 29th, Monday, December 2nd
Christmas, Wednesday December 25th, 2024 Hannukah, Wednesday Night, December 25th through Thursday night, January 2nd Kwanzaa, Thursday, December 26th through Wednesday, January 1st New Years, Tuesday night, December 31st through Wednesday, January 1st |
BM2 NEWS
BM2 is excited to announce that we now offer rail and intermodal shipment services to our clients. As part of our ongoing commitment to growth and strengthening strategic partnerships, we’ve expanded into intermodal transportation. This allows us to deliver the same exceptional service our customers rely on, now across a broader range of logistics solutions.
BM2 is thrilled to welcome 11 new customers to our growing network! We’re dedicated to delivering exceptional service and tailored solutions to meet their unique needs. As we continue to expand, we’re not only enhancing our service offerings but also strengthening our commitment to excellence in every partnership.
BM2 has been successfully developing large-scale drop trailer programs designed to reduce costs by eliminating lengthy loading times, detention, and additional accessorial charges. Drop trailer programs are one of our core specialties, and we take pride in partnering with customers and shippers to design and implement these efficient, cost-saving solutions. We have successfully coordinated over 3,000 drop trailer movements this year and are expecting to grow these programs into 2025!
Cargo Theft
October 2024 saw high cargo theft activity in key hotspots like Southern California, Fort Worth/Dallas, Chicago, and Memphis. Electronics were the top target, with California alone accounting for 60% of incidents, followed by Arizona and Texas at 15% each. Theft methods were dominated by pilferage (52%) and full truckload theft (27%), while facility theft rose slightly in areas like SOCAL and Dallas. Sundays and the midnight-to-noon timeframe saw the highest theft spikes.
Looking ahead to December, theft risks will escalate as holiday volumes peak. Electronics, consumer goods, and parcels will remain key targets, with hotspots like SOCAL, Texas, and the Midwest staying active. Criminals are expected to exploit extended holiday breaks, targeting shipments left in unsecured areas. Into early 2025, theft may dip post-holidays, but high-value freight like electronics will remain at risk. Weather-related delays could create new opportunities for theft, particularly in northern states. Organized rings will likely continue targeting major freight hubs, making robust security measures essential.
To mitigate risks, secure trailers with ISO-compliant seals and GPS tracking, avoid leaving freight unattended, and partner with carriers prioritizing security.
DID YOU KNOW
Did you know over the last 3 years BM2 has successfully shipped over 7,000 high-value shipments? BM2 prides itself on going the extra mile to ensure the highest level of security, reliability, and care for each shipment. Our team is dedicated to protecting your valuable cargo with rigorous tracking, specialized handling, and robust risk management, giving you peace of mind that your high-value goods are in trusted hands every step of the way.
INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW
CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network
State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)
US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Canada diesel prices, 21-Oct-2024 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com
Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)
The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)
Construction Market Trends for August 2024 – Building Permit Data
Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update (emarketer.com)