Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.635/gallon
- Last Week: $3.697/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.02
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.361

Summary: Diesel prices increased slightly by 2 cents WoW, marking a shift in fuel cost trends. The biggest regional increases were observed on the West Coast and Gulf Coast, while the Midwest remains stable. Anticipated tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China (effective March 4, 2025) could further drive fuel demand higher. Analysts predict a 5-10% diesel price increase in Q2, particularly affecting long-haul and cross-border trucking. Seasonal refinery maintenance cycles could further exacerbate regional fuel price volatility.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (January – February) $0.12
- Reefer Markets (January – February) $0.18
- Flatbed Markets (January – February) $0.00

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As was expected in Q1, post-holiday softening continues, but freight markets are positioned for gradual recovery heading into Q2. Shippers should secure capacity early, particularly in reefer and flatbed markets, as demand accelerates.

Reefer: March marks the ramp-up of produce season, with strawberries, citrus, and leafy greens expected to drive outbound reefer volumes in California, Texas, and Florida. Easter-driven demand for dairy, eggs, and confectioneries will further tighten capacity into April.
Flatbed: Construction season is beginning earlier than usual due to mild weather. Demand for steel, lumber, and heavy equipment transport is rising in Midwest, Texas, and Gulf Coast markets.
Dry Van: Retail restocking continues, but consumer spending uncertainty keeps demand inconsistent. Tariff concerns and import shifts may affect domestic shipping patterns.

Trade & Tariff Updates:

March 4 Tariffs on Key Goods: The confirmed U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, electronics, and agricultural products are now in effect. Businesses must prepare for cost increases and supply chain shifts over the next few months.
U.S. Tariffs:
- Mexico & Canada: 25% tariffs on auto parts, aluminum, steel, and select agriculture goods.
- China: Doubling of tariffs from 10% to 20% on key imports.
China Retaliates:
- 10-15% tariffs added to U.S. coal, crude oil, LNG, soybeans, and auto exports.
- U.S. West Coast exports will decline, lowering outbound trucking demand.
Freight Impact:
- Cross-border trucking volumes surged pre-March 4 as shippers rushed to move goods before tariffs took hold.
- West Coast freight flows remain uncertain, as China has enacted retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural and energy exports.
- Industrial freight lanes could see demand fluctuations, depending on how businesses adjust sourcing strategies in response to rising material costs.
- Midwest & Northeast rates may spike if Mexico & Canada retaliate in Q2.

MARKET PREDICTIONS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

Capacity: Market remains loose, with excess truck availability following a weak February. Q2 demand recovery is crucial to prevent further rate erosion.
Rates: Spot market dropped 5.6% in February, reflecting seasonal normalization and softer-than-expected demand. March will be pivotal in determining whether retail replenishment and construction bring stability.
Regional Trends:
- Midwest & Southeast lanes remain oversupplied, keeping downward pressure on rates.
- Cross-border lanes (Laredo, Detroit) could see sharp rate spikes if tariffs drive last-minute volume surges.

Reefer:

Capacity: Capacity is moderate but tightening in Florida, Texas, and California, where produce season is starting to build momentum.
Rates: Reefer fell 7.1% in February, despite early produce movements. Delayed harvests and weather disruptions slowed expected rate rebounds.
Regional Trends:
- South Texas and Nogales, AZ seeing increased outbound reefer demand.
- Florida strawberry & citrus season ramping up—expect outbound tightening in March.
- Easter-driven dairy, protein, and confectionery demand may lift Midwest reefer rates.

Flatbed:

Capacity: Steady but tightening in Midwest, Texas, and Southeast, as early-season construction projects take off.
Rates: Flat MoM in February, but projected to rise in March and April as infrastructure spending, energy projects, and homebuilding accelerate.
Regional Trends:
- Gulf Coast (Houston, New Orleans) seeing higher demand for oil & gas equipment.
- Midwest steel and lumber shipments increasing, leading to tighter regional capacity.
- Homebuilding in the Southeast will sustain growth into Q2.

POST-MARCH 4 MARKET SHIFT

Capacity Rebalancing:

Following the capacity shifts in February, March is expected to show a mix of regional tightening and market stabilization due to inventory replenishment and infrastructure recovery projects.
Midwest and Northeast capacity remained strained due to continued winter weather disruptions and fluctuating demand cycles.
Southern regions experienced a slight increase in outbound freight, particularly for reefer loads tied to produce movements.

April Freight Market Outlook:

Transitional Period:

April is expected to solidify the seasonal demand increases observed in March, particularly in reefer and flatbed markets. in reefer and flatbed freight.
Capacity tightening is expected in key markets as Q2 approaches.

Reefer Stability & Expansion:

Produce season in California, Florida, and Mexico is gaining momentum, leading to early capacity shifts.
Easter-driven demand in dairy, protein, and confectionery markets will drive outbound reefer activity, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast.
Potential supply chain disruptions due to tariff-related sourcing shifts may affect freight flows.

Flatbed Growth Accelerates:

Infrastructure and commercial construction projects in regions like Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago are accelerating demand for steel, lumber, and industrial equipment moves.
Government infrastructure spending continues to drive higher project freight volume, keeping flatbed rates stable or rising.

Rate Movements & Market Expectations:

Tariffs and global trade tensions may cause rate fluctuations, particularly in cross-border lanes.
Intermodal and rail volumes on the West Coast could shift freight flows inland, affecting truckload capacity in key Midwest and East Coast hubs.
If demand does not pick up in Dry Van, rates may remain suppressed into early Q2.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

West Coast remains the primary import hub, but tariff adjustments are causing some diversification in freight distribution.
Shippers are shifting some freight inland via intermodal, affecting drayage demand and regional truckload capacity in major intermodal hubs like Chicago, Memphis, and Dallas.

Transportation Events

Upcoming Holidays

Air Cargo Conference, March 2nd-4th, 2025

TMP25 – Trans-Pacific Maritime Conference, March 2nd – 5th, 2025

ProMat 2025, March 17th- 20th, 2025

Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/XPO, May 5th – 7th, 2025

Procurment & Supply Chain LIVE: Chicago, June 4th – 5th, 2025

Easter Sunday, April 20th, 2025

Memorial Day, May 26th, 2025

BM2 NEWS

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