Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.539/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.526/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.013
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $1.047

Summary: Diesel prices have seen a slight increase this week but remain below year-over-year levels, providing some relief in overall transportation costs. The slight weekly rise is attributed to ongoing refinery maintenance and fluctuating crude oil prices.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (August- Sept.) $0.03
  • Reefer Markets (August- Sept.) $0.03
  • Flatbed Markets (August- Sept.) $0.01

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

• Seasonal Trends: The shift from back-to-school to holiday season preparations is expected to tighten capacity in van markets. Reefer demand, while showing slight easing in some areas, remains high due to ongoing agricultural activity, especially in California and the Pacific Northwest. Construction is maintaining flatbed demand but will likely see a decline in northern regions as winter approaches.
• Construction Projects: Continued high demand for flatbed equipment in southern U.S. regions due to ongoing infrastructure projects. However, construction activity in northern states is expected to slow down as colder weather sets in, impacting flatbed capacity and rates.
• Port Operations: East Coast ports face potential disruptions due to looming labor strikes, which could worsen congestion and affect freight flows. High import volumes continue to strain capacity, particularly in major hubs like Savannah and New York.

MARKET PREDICTIONS

• Capacity Trends: Tightening is expected for van and reefer markets as holiday retail demand increases. Reefer capacity shows regional tightness in agricultural hubs but is slightly easing overall. Flatbed capacity is gradually loosening due to reduced construction activity in colder northern markets.
• Rate Trends: Van rates are likely to rise modestly as holiday demand peaks. Reefer rates will remain volatile, with specific increases in agricultural lanes, particularly in California. Flatbed rates are expected to soften as construction slows but remain stable in areas with ongoing projects.
• Post-October Market: As we move into Q4, market volatility will continue, driven by retail freight movements and potential disruptions from labor issues at ports and ongoing geopolitical tensions. The logistics landscape will remain complex, requiring strategic planning to navigate capacity constraints and fluctuating rates.

SEASONAL TRENDS AND CONSUMER DEMAND

• Holiday Shopping: The focus is shifting from back-to-school to holiday shopping, increasing Van demand in major retail hubs such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and Dallas. Reefer demand remains strong in agricultural regions like the Central Valley in California, the Southeast and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, but there are signs of easing as some harvests conclude. Expect tight capacity in key markets like Los Angeles, Dallas, and Chicago due to heightened retail logistics needs. Agricultural regions like California’s Central Valley will continue to experience tight Reefer capacity due to ongoing produce shipments, though some relief may be seen as the Midwest harvest season winds down.
• Produce Season Impact: Reefer demand remains strong but shows signs of softening in some areas as harvest seasons end. Key commodities such as grapes, tomatoes, and strawberries continue to drive capacity constraints and higher rates, particularly in California’s Central Valley, Florida, and Texas. The Midwest is seeing a reduction in demand as its produce season tapers off. Shippers should be prepared for tight capacity and elevated rates in key agricultural hubs like California’s Central Valley and the Rio Grande Valley in Texas. However, there may be some easing of Reefer demand in the Midwest and Northern Plains regions as harvests conclude.
• Construction and Flatbed Demand: Ongoing construction projects continue to support Flatbed demand, especially in Southern states like Texas and Florida. However, in colder Northern regions, such as the Midwest and Northeast, construction-related freight is likely to decline as temperatures drop, leading to loosening capacity and softening rates. Businesses relying on Flatbed equipment should anticipate tight capacity and steady rates in Southern markets, while Northern states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may see loosening capacity and decreasing rates as winter weather sets in.

TLDR: Seasonal Trends

• Van Shipments: Anticipate demand fluctuations with a slight dip after back-to-school but an upswing as holiday shipping ramps up. Capacity may tighten approaching key retail deadlines.
• Reefer Shipments: Demand is regionally driven and less robust overall. Key agricultural markets maintain tight capacity but broader reefer volumes are softening. Expect volatility in rates through Q4.
• Flatbed Shipments: Ongoing demand in southern construction zones will taper off in colder regions. Rates expected to remain stable with potential softening as winter approaches.

BM2 NEWS

• BM2 Freight Services is at the forefront of reducing fraud, theft, and claims for our customers, boasting an industry-leading claims rate of less than 0.14%. When you ship with BM2, you can be confident that your freight is protected every step of the way.
• In September, BM2 proudly welcomed six new customers to our network! We are grateful for the opportunity to serve and are committed to building lasting, trust-driven relationships with our new partners.
• BM2 expertly manages a balanced mix of contracted and spot shipments, maintaining an ideal 50/50 split. This strategic blend allows us to swiftly respond to market changes, provide reliable capacity through contracted lanes, and offer seamless coverage for last-minute shipments—all while enhancing operational efficiency.

DID YOU KNOW

• At BM2 Freight, 18% of our spot shipments are tendered to us the same day, showcasing our expertise in handling urgent shipments promptly. When time is of the essence, trust BM2 Freight to swiftly get a truck to the shipper and reliably move your goods to their destination.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

• CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network
• State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)
• US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Canada diesel prices, 16-Sep-2024 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com
• Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
• All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
• Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
• E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
• United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)
• The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)
• Construction Market Trends for August 2024 – Building Permit Data
• Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update (emarketer.com)
• Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods
• US_2024.pdf (usda.gov)