Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.573/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.553/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.02
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.881

Summary: Diesel prices have seen a slight increase this week but remain below year-over-year levels, providing some relief in overall transportation costs. The slight weekly rise is attributed to ongoing refinery maintenance and fluctuating crude oil prices.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (September – October) $0.05
  • Reefer Markets (September – October) $0.01
  • Flatbed Markets (September – October) $0.03

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

• Seasonal Trends: Seasonal demand is rising on East Coast-to-Midwest and East Texas outbound lanes, also, the West Coast, particularly near major ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach, is seeing a spike in volumes due to increased produce imports. This West Coast activity has led to higher outbound rates, especially as shipments support holiday restocking needs for East Coast retail hubs. Overall, the holiday retail cycle and agricultural shipments are likely to keep demand high on East Coast and Midwest lanes. Meanwhile, localized rate increases and capacity constraints on the West Coast are tied to port-specific produce imports, marking a departure from broader national trends.
• Construction and Recovery Projects: Continued infrastructure work in the Southeast, Texas, and parts of the Midwest is driving robust demand for flatbed capacity. Recovery projects, especially in areas impacted by recent storms, are also contributing to demand in Southern regions. Projects include highway expansions, commercial developments, and hurricane-related repairs that sustain higher-than-average demand in these lanes.
• Port Operations: West Coast Surge – West Coast ports, particularly Los Angeles and Long Beach, are experiencing a notable increase in produce imports, driven by fresh fruit shipments from countries like New Zealand, Chile, and Peru. This trend aligns with USDA forecasts projecting an uptick in U.S. agricultural imports for 2024. In response, ports have boosted cold storage and reefer plug capacity, but the increased demand occasionally strains reefer capacity in areas near these ports. For shippers using West Coast lanes—especially those distributing goods inland—this may mean localized rate adjustments or reefer availability constraints. Despite these pressures, national reefer rates remain broadly stable, with cost increases limited to high-volume port areas.

MARKET PREDICTIONS

• Capacity Trends: Capacity is generally tightening on major holiday lanes from the East Coast to Midwest and East Texas. West Coast lanes are holding stable, though continued demand in dry and produce import sustains localized pressures near port areas. Overall, national capacity remains balanced with peak season volumes expected on holiday lanes through November​.
• Rate Trends: Dry Van: Rates are expected to rise by 3-5% on high-demand lanes from East Coast to Midwest. Reefer: While rates remain broadly stable, slight increases are anticipated near ports due to the high volume of imported produce and seasonal demand for the holidays, along with shipments that need to be protected from freeze that would normally take up dry van capacity. Flatbed: Expected to decline in the northern regions due to winter’s impact on construction, while rates in the Southeast remain steady.
• Post-November Market: The post-November period is expected to bring temporary relief in capacity, especially on primary holiday lanes. However, regional factors—like continued produce imports, recovery projects, and January restocking—are anticipated to sustain isolated demand spikes. Shippers should prepare for a fluctuating market, with anticipated rate adjustments heading into early 2025.

SEASONAL TRENDS AND CONSUMER DEMAND

• Holiday Shopping: The holiday season brings heightened freight demand across segments, particularly for dry van and e-commerce-driven lanes as retailers and online platforms work to meet increased consumer spending. This spike, especially pronounced on East Coast to Midwest lanes, is expected to sustain high rates through December. Seasonal produce imports like citrus and avocados are driving reefer demand near West Coast and Gulf ports, adding isolated rate pressures in port-proximate areas but with minimal national impact. Flatbed demand remains steady in warmer regions like the Southeast and Texas, supporting construction and ongoing recovery projects, while winter slows projects in colder areas. Shippers should plan for potential peak surcharges, particularly for e-commerce and reefer capacity near ports.
• Produce Season Impact: Domestic produce demand is on the decline, with steady interest primarily in winter crops like Florida citrus. However, rising imported produce volumes on the West and Gulf Coasts—particularly near ports like Los Angeles and Houston—are tightening reefer capacity in those areas. As a result, shippers near these key ports may experience slight capacity constraints, though national reefer rates remain largely unaffected.
• Construction and Flatbed Demand: In warmer regions like the Southeast and Texas, flatbed demand is expected to remain steady due to ongoing construction and recovery projects, while colder regions will likely see a seasonal dip. This shift could free up some flatbed capacity, redistributing it to areas with consistent demand and helping balance regional constraints. Additionally, recovery projects focused on hurricane damage repairs and infrastructure recovery are likely to sustain flatbed demand in Southern and coastal areas, even as the broader national market cools.

TLDR: Seasonal Trends

• Van Shipments: Holiday demand drives van shipments high on East Coast to Midwest lanes, with continued high demand on West Coast-to-inland routes due to sustained import volumes.
• Reefer Shipments: Demand is regionally driven, and less robust overall as domestic produce continues to wind down. Key agricultural markets, as well as West Coast ports and the Southeast, continue to experience tight capacity. However, overall reefer volumes are softening. Rate volatility is expected to persist throughout Q4.
• Flatbed Shipments: Southeast demand remains strong due to construction, with some easing in northern regions as winter impacts projects.

BM2 NEWS

BM2’s very own Snr. Operations Support Manager, Carla Bay was named a recipient of the 2024 women in supply chain award – workforce innovator category!

BM2 is proud to maintain and strengthen our valued partnership with E2open clients. With over 15 E2open customers currently supported, we are excited to continue expanding our services and building on this successful collaboration.

BM2 has been steadfast in supporting communities affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. By addressing critical transportation challenges, we have played a key role in streamlining relief efforts and ensuring essential goods reach those in need. Our commitment to solving these logistical issues remains unwavering, as we continue to work closely with partners and agencies to facilitate recovery and rebuild impacted areas.

DID YOU KNOW

Since Hurricane Helene made landfall on September 26, 2024, BM2 has successfully delivered 418 critical shipments to the hardest-hit areas, including Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. These efforts have been instrumental in ensuring that essential supplies reached those in need quickly and efficiently, helping communities recover and rebuild in the aftermath of the storm. BM2 remains committed to providing continued support and solutions as recovery progresses in these impacted regions.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 21-Oct-2024 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Construction Market Trends for August 2024 – Building Permit Data

Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update (emarketer.com)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

US_2024.pdf (usda.gov)