HOS Changes Announced By FMCSA

HOS Revisions Timeline

According to a recent report from the Department of Transportation, the general public is set to get their first look at the proposed HOS (hours-of-service) changes on June 7.  The FMCSA (Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration) is planning to move quickly on the HOS revisions according to the report.  This announcement comes just 1 month after the Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chao, announced at the Mid-America Trucking Show that her department sent an NPRM (Notice of Proposed Rule Making) to the White House.  Upon the proposed changes being published on June 7, there will be a 49-day period where the public may comment on the changes that is set to conclude on July 26.

However, the June 7 publish date is not set in stone.  The publish date of the proposed rules is contingent upon how fast they clear the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB).  According to the FMCSA Administrator, Ray Martinez, the FMCSA has kept their foot on the gas with the rule to make sure it does not hang in limbo with the OMB.

Regulations Addressed

While a rough timeline on presenting the HOS regulation changes was recently presented to the public, detail of the proposed changes have not been published.  However, the proposed changes to the current HOS regulations come on the heels of a petition from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association addressing the need for change to the following regulations:

  • The 100 air-mile “short-haul” exemption currently at 12 hours on duty
  • The 14 hour on-duty limitation (hindering for trucks encountering adverse driving conditions)
  • The mandatory 30-minute break for drivers after 8 hours of driving
  • Bringing back the option for breaking up the mandatory 10-hour off-duty rest break for drivers in trucks equipped with sleeper-berth compartments

In conclusion, the details of the changes to the current HOS regulations are expected to address increased flexibility for drivers.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

China Trade War Approaching Resolution

U.S. Industry Concerned with Trade War Outcome

Monday, April 22 – Americans for Free Trade (AFT), a group of 150 businesses and associations within the U.S., sent a letter to the White House expressing concerns regarding the details of a possible resolve to the U.S. and China trade war.  The first concern states that all tariffs must be lifted upon a resolve being struck between the U.S. and China.  The letter from AFT went further to cite a previous comment from the Administration stating that American businesses must endure “short-term pain for long-term gain” in regards to the tariffs.  The letter states that a failure to remove tariffs will represent a “broken promise to these hardworking Americans”.  The second concern cited in the letter from AFT states that any deal struck with China must address and resolve their “unfair trading practices” in regards to forced technology transfer, cyber theft and intellectual property violations.  The third concern cited in the letter states that the Administration needs to avoid a deal that may result in future tariffs that could prolong the economic uncertainty for American businesses.  The fourth concern states that regardless of the outcome, businesses seeking relief from the tariffs via exemptions deserve clarity in the exemption process.  AFT went further to state that U.S. businesses have been waiting for months for exemptions.  Finally, it was demanded that the Administration do an in-depth analysis of the true costs of the tariffs for the U.S. economy prior to drawing any conclusions about the effectiveness the tariffs had in negotiations.

Approaching Resolve & Tariff Enforcement

According to a recent statement from the White House, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will be in Beijing for negotiations beginning on April 30.  Furthermore, China’s top economic adviser, Liu He, is set to travel with a delegation to Washington for additional talks set to start on May 8.  Both President Donald Trump’s and President Xi Jinping’s administrations have recently been hinting that a deal may be struck soon in the ongoing trade war.

However, top Trump administration officials have hinted that they plan to keep tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese commodities for a longer period of time with no end date specified.  According to President Trump, the reason for keeping tariffs in place for the time being is to ensure China sticks to the deal if/when a deal is made.  Furthermore, a likely resolution of the trade war is the $13 trillion Chinese bond market opening up to foreign investors.  The added income to the local-currency debt in China could very well offset the money lost when tariffs are lifted.  A timeline presented by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecasted $135 billion in foreign investments to the Chinese bond market over the next 20 months.  Should a deal be struck with China, and the foreign investments into China’s currency grow at the rate predicted by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., it will take approximately 37 months for the $250 billion in tariffs to be offset.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

New EU Tariffs & Strategies On Mitigating Cost

EU Import Tariffs

In a statement made on Monday, April 8, 2019, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced a preliminary list of EU commodities eligible for additional import tariffs. This statement comes in response to a recent ruling by the World Trade Organization (WTO) that found EU subsidies were being directed towards Airbus, resulting in “adverse effects to the United States.”

Additionally, the USTR has calculated an estimated negative impact from the EU subsidies at “$11 billion in trade each year.” This estimate is currently being challenged by the EU and evaluated by a WTO arbitrator. The United States is planning to put into effect a countermeasure worth $11.2 billion per year on qualified EU imports. You can find the preliminary product list here to which the U.S. plans to apply additional import duties.

7 Ways to Mitigate Tariff Costs

The newest EU tariffs being discussed–in addition to tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods, the still-developing USMCA agreement with Mexico and Canada, and soaring costs of commercial freight at the US/Mexico border–drive home the need for a cost mitigation plan for your supply chain. Consequently, we have compiled a list of 8 strategies that you can implement to mitigate the new tariff costs:

  1. Reclassification – Tariffs are placed on different classifications of products. The first way to avoid new tariffs is by reclassifying items into related, yet unaffected categories. One downfall to this approach is the possibility that your reclassified items may be subject to the entirely different tariffs.
  2. Engineering – This would involve buying parts and materials for your item that do not fall under any of the current tariff umbrellas. However, this could prove difficult for your engineering team(s), depending on the items and overall complexity of your product.
  3. Buying Ahead – This is the strategy that many companies have started utilizing when the tariffs went into effect. And while this is effective for stockpiling inventory, it can be difficult to forecast a budget for these scenarios with gridlocks and fluctuating lead times.
  4. Sharing Tariffs – If your company has buying power with the supplier(s) of your tariffed goods, then you may be able to negotiate sharing the tariff burden in order to maintain a profitable partnership. Granted, this tactic will not work if your supplier knows they have little competition.
  5. Changing Supplier Locations – If your supplier has locations in countries unaffected by the new tariff policies (China to be specific), then another way to avoid tariffs is sourcing from those other locations.
  6. Finding New Suppliers – Searching for a new supplier, while time-consuming, may be worthwhile for your supply chain in avoiding the new tariff policies. Southeast Asia–specifically Thailand and Vietnam–is becoming a hot spot for the global supply chain.
  7. Insourcing – From start to finish, moving your inventory production in-house would help you divert the tariff crisis altogether. However, purchasing and setting up the necessary equipment may prove to be both an expensive and time-consuming venture.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Southern Border Shutdown Unlikely Amidst New Tariff Threats

U.S. Industry Expresses Concern to White House

April 4, 2019 – A group 18 conglomerates representing the agricultural, auto, chemical, freight rail, and trucking industries sent a letter addressed to Larry Kudlow, Director of National Economic Council, and Mick Mulvaney, White House Chief of Staff.  The intent of the letter was to inform and caution the White House on the repercussions of closing the U.S./Mexico border in concerns to the economy.

The letter cites that the U.S. automotive industry would shutdown within a week if the border were to close indefinitely.  A recent report from Reuters stated that autopart and medical equipment manufacturers have recently considered air cargo in an attempt to bypass border wait times and mitigate late penalty fees for delivery to U.S. clients.

However, despite the White House backing off of threats to immediately close the U.S./Mexico border President Trump threatened to implement car tariffs “If the drugs don’t stop”, giving Mexico a 1 year warning.

Forecasting the Scenario

President Trump also paired the car tariff threat with Mexico stepping up it’s apprehension of migrants.  Amidst the growing uncertainties surrounding the White House’s threats to close the border and apply tariffs, Mexican companies have ramped up their shipping to get as much cargo into the U.S. as possible.  The recent reassignment of hundreds of CBP agents to immigration combined with skyrocketing wait times are causing a noticeable gridlock in commercial freight movement.

Therefore, companies, notably autopart and medical equipment manufacturers, are being forced to evaluate alternative shipping options for their freight.  However, according to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, the likelihood of an official border shutdown is slim.

In addition, the U.S. has not perceived any significant shortages in Mexican commodities.  The most notable goods receiving price hikes amid the worries of a border shutdown are avocados, berries, limes and asparagus.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Mexico/U.S. Border Under Threat Of Being Closed

Mexico/U.S. Border Situation

Last week, President Trump upped the ante at the U.S./Mexico border by threatening to close it indefinitely this week should Mexico not fix the “illegal immigration coming into the U.S.”  However, the threats were dialed back on Tuesday, April 2nd as reports from the president came in that Mexico is increasing their efforts for border security according to CBS News.

Furthermore, the U.S. does approximately $600 billion in trade with Mexico every year, and the 2 economies are so far intertwined that shutting down the border could have a devastating impact on the U.S. economy.  A recent statement from White House economic adviser, Larry Kudlow stated that the administration is working on ways to keep truck lanes open.

Approximately 80% of veggies and 40% of fruits imported to the U.S. come from Mexico.  Additionally, it is estimated that the U.S. supply of avocados would be gone in 3 weeks should the border shutdown indefinitely.  According to the Center for Automotive Research, a total border shutdown could halt automotive production within a week and impact at least 1 million jobs.

Border Gridlocks

The transfer of U.S. border agents to immigration duties has affected several border crossings as well.  Drivers have reported facing up to 12 hours of wait time to cross the border.  Of the lanes being affected by the transfer of border agents, one of the most notable is the crossing from Ciudad Juarez to El Paso, Texas.  In addition, the Otay Mesa commercial facility has also been affected by the redistribution of border agents resulting in 8 out of the 10 truck lanes open for the inspection and processing of imports.  Another port of entry affected is the Nuevo Laredo crossing that announced they will now be closing at 11:00PM daily.

Additionally, an estimated 2,000 CBP officers are in the process of being temporarily re-assigned to immigration services from the Canada/U.S. border.  This is likely to affect inbound and outbound shipment times on cross-border freight at some northern U.S. ports of entry.  Overall, the gridlock of freight is causing a large shortage of drivers which is likely to cause and upward trend in shipment prices for cross-border lanes.

To receive updated wait times by-the-hour on your shipments please visit https://apps.cbp.gov/bwt/mobile.asp.

Additional border wait times as of 4/8/19 9:30AM EST:

  • Brownsville – Veterans International : no delay, 1 lane open
  • Del Rio : no delay, 1 lane open
  • Laredo – World Trade Bridge : 45 minutes,  6 lanes open
  • Nogales – Mariposa : lanes closed
  • El Paso – BOTA : no delay, 1 lane open

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Flooding In The Midwest Causes Major Disruptions

Railroads Flooded

Snow melt and consistent rain has led to record breaking flooding all along the Missouri river.  The flooding has crippled the midwestern U.S. supply chain, more specifically railroads.  Both BNSF and Union Pacific are facing numerous interruptions in the region with limited rerouting options.  A recent report from BNSF stated that they are working on repairs, but the extent of the flooding along with more to come means the lapse in service could be prolonged in some locations.

Therefore, with railroad shipping in the region crippled for the time being it is important to consider alternative routing for your supply chain.  Additionally, along with railroads being affected by the weather, parts of I-80 from Wyoming into Nebraska have been closed as well.  The flooding is forecasted to intensify as snow melt from the Dakotas and northern regions of Iowa, Nebraska and Missouri flow south into the region.

Agriculture In Trouble

Amidst the U.S. and China trade war, farmers have opted to store crops from their 2018 harvests.  The part of the country affected by the flooding is unfortunately also a major center for U.S. grain production.  The record-breaking flooding that is occurring in Nebraska alone is estimated to cause nearly $1 billion in lost crops and livestock.

As a result, the Nebraska Farm Bureau has established a disaster relief fund for the farmers and rural communities of the state.  If you find yourself at an inclination to donate, then please visit https://www.nefb.org/get-involved/disaster-assistance.

Additionally, flooding problems are expected to persist longer for downstream communities where the Missouri River valley ties into the Mississippi River.  With the confluence of the Ohio, Missouri and Mississippi Rivers all within the areas being impacted by heavy rainfall, higher river levels are forecasted down the Mississippi.  Barge freight could also expect to see restrictions as this occurs.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Brexit Causing Uncertainty For Global Supply Chain

Brexit Duties Deadline

On March 13, British Parliament voted down the idea of leaving the E.U. on a “no-deal” scenario in which the primary concerns of avoiding a hard border with Ireland and deciding what tariffs to implement would not be addressed.  The vote was no landslide however, with a 312 ‘against’ to 308 ‘for’ final tally.  With the approaching March 29 Brexit deadline looming, the vote on extending that deadline passed last Thursday with a 412 ‘for’ to 202 ‘against’.  However, beyond that point the picture is unclear as the U.K. will be faced with a number of options on how to proceed with their exit from the E.U.  The few concrete factors to the situation include the deadline being pushed back to June 30, and businesses are highly against a “no-deal” Brexit as proceeding in that direction would adversely affect their supply chains and revenue.

Brexit Expert Insights

With 2 solutions to the Brexit “no-deal” scenario voted down by Parliament, the scenario remains largely up in the air for how the U.K. plans to exit the E.U.  In addition to the deadline extension, Parliament voted on an amendment to result in a second referendum that was voted down.  Furthermore, professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, Brendan O’Leary stated that a viable option for reaching an agreement on the Brexit would be the Norway option.

The Norway scenario would allow the U.K. to still be a part of the E.U. single market, but would decrease the U.K.’s voice in shaping the conditions due to no longer being a part of the E.U.  However, based off of the current solid facts of the situation the possibility for a second referendum is still looming.  Should another time crunch with the new June 30 Brexit deadline present itself, the possibility of Conservative members of Parliament voting for a second referendum increases.

Furthermore, the overview of the ongoing Brexit scenario demonstrates how interconnected the supply chains of the U.K. and E.U. really are.  Additionally, we would recommend that companies with supply chains in these geopolitical areas take a close look at the situation and find ways to mitigate the risk of additional import and export duties going into effect once a deal is struck.  Adidas is a great example of a company that has taken steps to mitigate Brexit risks by centering their European supply chain in Germany and the surrounding areas.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Trade Tariff Hike Delayed Again By Trump

“Substantial Progress” in Trade Talks

On the evening of Sunday, February 24th President Trump tweeted that the scheduled tariff increase to 25% would be delayed yet again.  In his tweet he cites “substantial progress” in trade talks and cited the negotiations as overall “very productive”.  The President’s tweet came in stark contrast to U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Lighthizer’s statements that March 1 would be a hard deadline for the tariff increase.

However, along with a handful of administration members cited progress in the trade negotiations with China.  Despite these reports, there has been very little specific detail reported on the situation that may offer businesses some insight into what to expect.  Furthermore, USTR Lighthizer testified before the House Ways and Means Committee on Wednesday, February 27th and reflected the same general sentiment from Trump and his administration that “we are making real progress”.  Details on the negotiations seem to still be locked up tight despite the reported progress that has been made thus far.

Lighthizer Hints Tariff Exclusion Process

In addition to the general details of progress being made from USTR Robert Lighthizer at last Wednesday’s House Ways and Means Committee meeting, Lighthizer cited China devaluing its currency since the initial 10% tariff came into effect in September of 2018.  Furthermore, due to China devaluing its currency, “the effect has been less significant that fully 10%” according to Lighthizer.

However, despite the lack of specifics offered thus far, USTR Lighthizer did commit to having an implemented exclusion process should tariffs rise to 25%.  He further reported that the administration is “looking at” an exclusion process for the 10% tariffs that are in place now.  Additionally, Representative Jackie Walorski cited a letter at the recent hearing that her and 168 additional Congress members sent to the USTR in October of 2018 which stated the need for an exclusion process.  In an attempt to delve for a specific timeline on when a tariff exclusion process would be defined and implemented she went further to cite the most recent spending bill that instructs the USTR to establish an exclusion process for the next round of tariffs within 30 days of its signing.

Despite the recent efforts to gain more insight into the specifics of the tariff timeline, the overarching theme of uncertainty seems to persist.  Our insight at BM2 is that it would be wise to proceed as if the 15% tariff hike will eventually go into effect.  However, the pressure from Congress combined with Lighthizer’s commitment on having a tariff exclusion process is promising for businesses.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com

Market Stability And Contracted Freight On The Rise

Market Stability Amid Trade War

Recent data from the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI) shows that national trucking volumes are almost exactly where they were last March in 2018. However, spot rates are down 10-15% and tender rejection rates have also dropped significantly since last year. This recent data indicates that 2019 might experience a dramatic increase in contracted freight.

Due to the large volume of freight entering ports, most notably Los Angeles and Long Beach, lead times for trucks have naturally increased. This increase has resulted in trucks actually being available where they are needed most. The steady flow of freight from ports, combined with available capacity in the right place and the increase in contracted freight, is providing stability to the typically volatile market.

However, 91 of the 135 freight markets in the United States have increased in volume in the last week. This presents the question… how long will this market stability last?

Our Insight

Opposite to early 2018, the freight market has seen volume increase at a slow but steady rate. This slow but steadily increasing freight volume could be attributed to many companies shipping their inventory out of China amid concerns raised by the recent trade war. Major port cities like Los Angeles and Long Beach have been overwhelmed with record freight volumes. This has created a bottleneck effect: volume is being processed as quickly as possible, but there is simply too much to process all at once.

Market stability is attributed to the steady trickle of volume coming from these major port cities, but this stability will only last so long as volume remains relatively the same across the country. Well over 50% of the country’s freight markets experienced volume increases in the past week. Should volume levels in other areas of the country continue to rise, capacity will eventually disperse across said markets and cause spot-rates to skyrocket. Furthermore, should the market destabilize contracted freight would experience a sharp decline as well. However, if more deadlines to the trade war tariff hikes are publicized, then port cities will continue to see a rise in volume, and the market will presumably stay relatively stable.

BM2 Freight Services, Inc.

Phone: (859) 308-5100

Email: Sales@BM2Freight.com