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Market Update 12/15/2023

Logistics industry market trends you need to know.

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

PORT IMPACTS:

  • Port Recovery not expected until 2025
  • US ports are trending to have a 12.8% year-on-year drop in TEU
  • US ports are estimated to 1.99 million TEUs in Oct and will see a decline in Nov and December to 1.92 million TEUs

SEASONAL TRENDS:

  • Reefer and Van demand continue to increase
  • FTL rates should rise to the end of the year
  • The Fed continues to hold its rate and is expected to hold into 2024; where it stated that there will be 3 cuts
  • Holiday push saw retail sales rise .3%, online sales 1%, while department stores fell 2.5%

TRANSPORTATION EVENTS:

UPCOMING HOLIDAYS:

  • Christmas (Monday, December 25)
  • New Years (Monday, January 1)
  • Chinese New Year (Saturday, February 10)

WEATHER IMPACT

Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Weather System: A digging upper low.

Impact: A low pressure system beneath a digging upper trough.

Forecast: Snow over the mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, extending to the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles

Snow Levels: Additional 4-8 inches expected through early Friday morning.

Movement: East

Additional Weather: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in eastern and southern New Mexico, spreading east through western and central Texas/Oklahoma today.

Temperatures: Below average due to winter conditions and cloud cover for today and tomorrow.

Southern Florida

Weather Feature: A quasi-stationary front.

Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon, with increasing rainfall leading to a heavy rain event on Saturday.

Risk: Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall, particularly in southeast Florida, including the greater Miami metro area.

Concerns: High rain rates over urban areas may lead to flash flooding. There is significant uncertainty regarding the system’s development due to discrepancies in model predictions.

East Texas/Oklahoma and Western Gulf Coast

Forecast: The low-pressure system will bring more showers and thunderstorms into these areas on Friday

Western US and Northern Tier of the Country

Weather Influence: High pressure on both sides of the upper trough.

Forecast: A warming trend over the next few days.

WPC’s Short Range Public Discussion (noaa.gov)

INDUSTRY NEWS

Freight cycle bottom continues to form in November – FreightWaves

We’re still at risk for another ‘everything shortage’ – FreightWaves

Retail Sales Rise 0.3% in November as Holiday Rush Begins | Transport Topics (ttnews.com)

Fed Keeps Rate Unchanged, Signals Cuts Coming Next Year | Transport Topics (ttnews.com)

Logistics companies race to adapt to shifting supply chains | Supply Chain Dive

As manufacturers turn away from China, Vietnam lures investment | Supply Chain Dive

 

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