Market Update 12/15/2023
Logistics industry market trends you need to know.
GENERAL MARKET TRENDS
POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS
PORT IMPACTS:
- Port Recovery not expected until 2025
- US ports are trending to have a 12.8% year-on-year drop in TEU
- US ports are estimated to 1.99 million TEUs in Oct and will see a decline in Nov and December to 1.92 million TEUs
SEASONAL TRENDS:
- Reefer and Van demand continue to increase
- FTL rates should rise to the end of the year
- The Fed continues to hold its rate and is expected to hold into 2024; where it stated that there will be 3 cuts
- Holiday push saw retail sales rise .3%, online sales 1%, while department stores fell 2.5%
TRANSPORTATION EVENTS:
UPCOMING HOLIDAYS:
- Christmas (Monday, December 25)
- New Years (Monday, January 1)
- Chinese New Year (Saturday, February 10)
WEATHER IMPACT
Southern Colorado, Northern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles
Weather System: A digging upper low.
Impact: A low pressure system beneath a digging upper trough.
Forecast: Snow over the mountains of southern Colorado and northern New Mexico, extending to the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles
Snow Levels: Additional 4-8 inches expected through early Friday morning.
Movement: East
Additional Weather: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely in eastern and southern New Mexico, spreading east through western and central Texas/Oklahoma today.
Temperatures: Below average due to winter conditions and cloud cover for today and tomorrow.
Southern Florida
Weather Feature: A quasi-stationary front.
Forecast: Showers and thunderstorms starting this afternoon, with increasing rainfall leading to a heavy rain event on Saturday.
Risk: Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall, particularly in southeast Florida, including the greater Miami metro area.
Concerns: High rain rates over urban areas may lead to flash flooding. There is significant uncertainty regarding the system’s development due to discrepancies in model predictions.
East Texas/Oklahoma and Western Gulf Coast
Forecast: The low-pressure system will bring more showers and thunderstorms into these areas on Friday
Western US and Northern Tier of the Country
Weather Influence: High pressure on both sides of the upper trough.
Forecast: A warming trend over the next few days.
WPC’s Short Range Public Discussion (noaa.gov)
INDUSTRY NEWS
Freight cycle bottom continues to form in November – FreightWaves
We’re still at risk for another ‘everything shortage’ – FreightWaves
Retail Sales Rise 0.3% in November as Holiday Rush Begins | Transport Topics (ttnews.com)
Fed Keeps Rate Unchanged, Signals Cuts Coming Next Year | Transport Topics (ttnews.com)
Logistics companies race to adapt to shifting supply chains | Supply Chain Dive
As manufacturers turn away from China, Vietnam lures investment | Supply Chain Dive
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