Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.45/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.49/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.04
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.44

Summary: U.S. diesel prices declined again, continuing a steady downward trend. Midwest and Gulf Coast saw the largest price drops due to stabilizing crude prices and increased refinery output. Canadian diesel sits around $4.01/gal USD (↓12.6% YoY), while Mexican diesel is up at $5.07/gal USD (↑5.0% YoY), still influenced by refinery bottlenecks and subsidy tapering.

Outlook: Tariff-related volatility and global fuel cost moderation are keeping domestic diesel price changes relatively stable.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (May – June) $0.05
  • Reefer Markets (May – June) $0.02
  • Flatbed Markets (May – June) $0.03

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As Q2 reaches its close, the freight market shows signs of regional volatility rather than broad-based momentum. Flatbed and reefer markets remain the tightest segments, with LTRs still historically high despite post-Roadcheck cooldowns. Produce volumes are gradually picking up but remain compressed compared to prior years, especially out of California and Mexico. Construction and energy sectors continue to support flatbed volume, while van markets remain uneven, largely driven by retail and import demand near port hubs.

• Reefer: Capacity remains tight across most of the U.S. as late-season berry, melon, and citrus crops move through key outbound regions (California, Texas, Florida). LTRs remain elevated, but rates are under pressure due to retail softness and delayed harvest surges. Watch Nogales, McAllen, and Lakeland for volume pressure into July.
• Flatbed: Still the strongest modal segment. Industrial freight, steel, and project cargo out of Texas, Alabama, and Georgia continue to hold rates near seasonal highs. While LTRs dipped from May peaks, demand remains elevated from housing, manufacturing, and Gulf infrastructure work.
• Dry Van: Capacity is starting to tighten slightly around Gulf and East Coast port regions (Houston, Savannah, Norfolk) due to modal shifts from intermodal and tariff-bypassing strategies. However, national van capacity remains loose overall. Retail restocking remains inconsistent, with signs of overstock in some Midwest warehouses suppressing volume.

Other Disruptors:

• Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded: On June 1, the Trump administration announced expanded tariffs on steel and aluminum, targeting imports from Europe and East Asia. This move is expected to raise costs for U.S. manufacturers and put pressure on Midwest flatbed lanes hauling inbound industrial and construction freight.
• U.S.–China Tariff Pause Holds: The 90-day pause on new tariffs remains in effect following the May 10 U.S.–China rollback agreement. Most Chinese import tariffs remain reduced at 45–65%, down from the prior 125%, easing pressure on import-heavy modes.
• Cross-Border Freight Conditions: Border inspection delays have eased, with wait times now averaging 2–4 hours at Laredo and Nogales. However, brokers should still quote live due to tariff-related customs variability.
  • Reefer and LTL volumes are stable into and out of Mexico, supported by ongoing nearshoring trends.
  • Outbound truckload softness is being partially offset by stronger LTL compliance and parts shipments.
• Port Diversions & Inland Shift: West Coast ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) remain subdued with blank sailings and weaker China bookings still prevalent.
  Gulf and East Coast ports (Houston, Savannah, Norfolk, Ensenada) continue gaining share, funneling more FTL volume inland to Dallas, Atlanta, and Chicago hubs. These modal shifts are contributing to tighter regional capacity and inconsistent rate behavior near transload zones.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

• Capacity: Gradually firming in Southeast and Gulf regions as retail restocking and port realignment flows increase.
• Rates: Overall Flat, Rates are up MoM .05 but still lowest amongst equipment types.
• Forecast: Expect continued rate stagnation in oversupplied regions (Northwest, West Coast), but modest firming in Gulf and transload markets.

Reefer:

• Capacity: Tightening continues: LTR at 9.13.
• Rates: Down slightly, .02 MoM, 2025 volumes are lagging that of 2024
• Forecast: Peak season pressure to continue through mid-July, especially out of Nogales, Central California, and Lakeland.

Flatbed:

• Capacity: LTR dropped to 25.88, still highest nationally.
• Rates: Up slightly by .03 MoM
• Forecast: Energy, infrastructure, and housing demand continue to support high utilization across Texas and Southeast. Tariff-driven reshoring may provide upside near industrial zones.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

• Dry Van: Capacity has loosened post-Roadcheck, but watch for tightening near Gulf Coast and East Coast ports as retail restocking and inland port flows increase into late June.
• Reefer: Capacity remains tightest since early Q1, driven by compressed late-season produce from California, Florida, and Mexico. Expect continued strain through early July as berry and citrus volume persists.
• Flatbed: Nationally softening slightly, but still well above average. Capacity remains tight regionally in Texas, the Gulf, and Southeast industrial zones, supported by construction and energy demand.
• Cross border freight: Lanes remain volatile amid tariff uncertainty. Although border wait times have improved, live quoting is still critical — especially for lanes tied to automotive, LTL, and reefer commodities.
• LTL: Strong and stable. Aftermarket parts, nearshoring shipments, and compliance-sensitive freight from Mexico and Canada are driving consistent volume, particularly in border regions like Laredo, Detroit, and Nogales.

Key Takeaways:

• Dry Van Demand: Sluggish demand keeps rates soft; watch Southeast and Gulf for tightening.
• Reefer Demand: Late bloom produce surge has extended seasonal volume through June; however, spot rates dipped slightly.
• Flatbed Demand: Still outperforming; construction and energy zones continue to drive demand.
• Tariff Impacts: Steel and aluminum measures reintroduced, risking industrial freight cost escalations.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

• West Coast:
  • LA/Long Beach: Still operating at 20–30% below Q1 averages, weighed down by weak transpacific volumes, elevated blank sailings, and importers preferring tariff-sheltered ports.
  • Seattle/Tacoma: Activity remains flat; no notable rebound in volumes or diversification. Rail intermodal out of the Northwest remains underused.
    • Outlook: Without a tariff rollback or recovery in China imports, expect subdued volumes and continued modal leakage to Gulf and East Coast.
• East Coast:
  • Savannah & Charleston: Continue to gain share aggressively. Both are absorbing freight from NY/NJ and West Coast shifts, due to lower congestion, faster inland access, and fewer customs hold-ups.
  • Virginia: Emerging as a compliance-friendly alternative, particularly for retail and LTL replenishment freight.
    • Outlook: East Coast growth is expected to remain steady, especially as nearshoring boosts demand for faster U.S. inland distribution via these corridors.
• Gulf Coast:
  • Houston: Stable volumes. Benefiting from re-routed Asian imports via Ensenada and increased cross-border traffic from Mexico.
  • Veracruz & Ensenada: Now seeing a measurable bump in transload activity, especially for Mexico–Asia container freight. These ports are becoming strategic bypass hubs for shippers avoiding the LA basin.
    • Outlook: Gulf ports will stay hot through summer, especially for energy, automotive, and construction linked imports.

BM2 NEWS

Bonded Freight & Customs Clearance
BM2 specializes in bonded freight solutions across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico—helping you defer tariffs, accelerate customs clearance, and keep your supply chain competitive. Whether you’re moving auto parts, electronics, industrial goods, steel, or perishables, our in-bond expertise ensures your shipments get where they need to go, on time and tariff-efficiently.

Why Choose BM2?

• Expedited bonded drayage at all major ports and airports
• Customs expertise, including complete in-bond documentation and compliance
• Robust cross-border network for reliable transport throughout North America
• Duty deferral strategies to avoid delays and reduce landed costs

BM2 News & Highlights

• Cross-Border Specialists: We excel at U.S.–Mexico shipments, leveraging our dedicated carrier partners to navigate uncertain trade policies and ensure seamless deliveries.
• In-Bond Authority: From origin to destination, BM2 manages secure, compliant in-bond transportation—so your goods maintain supply-chain integrity every step of the way.
• High-Volume Performance: With over 700 same-day bonded shipments processed monthly, BM2’s optimized systems and partner network meet even the most demanding timelines without sacrificing accuracy.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 02-Jun-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Mexico diesel prices, 02-Jun-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Cargo Theft Surges to Record Levels as Holiday Season Approaches, Verisk CargoNet Analysis Shows | Verisk

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.592/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.567/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.025
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.404

Summary: Diesel prices rose slightly by $0.025 WoW, maintaining a gradual upward trend. The largest increases were noted along the West Coast and Gulf Coast, driven by lingering supply chain constraints and seasonal refinery maintenance. With tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China now active since March 4, 2025, analysts anticipate potential further diesel price increases of 5-10% in Q2, particularly impacting long-haul and cross-border freight. As refinery maintenance continues, expect regional fuel price volatility to persist through April and May.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (February – March) $0.03
  • Reefer Markets (February – March) $0.08
  • Flatbed Markets (February – March) $0.09

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As Q1 transitions into Q2, freight markets are facing mixed conditions. Reefer demand is expected to rise sharply with produce season gains in California, Florida, and Mexico, while flatbed markets tighten due to infrastructure projects and seasonal construction activity. Tariffs and cross-border volatility continue to impact key trade lanes, creating regional rate disparities. Van capacity remains loose but may stabilize if retail restocking picks up. Expect gradual tightening across reefer and flatbed markets.

• Reefer: Produce season is underway, with increasing demand from California, Florida, and Mexico. Volatility is expected through April and May as produce flows intensify, especially citrus and berries.
• Flatbed: Elevated demand due to construction season, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago. Infrastructure projects are bolstering demand, leading to regional capacity constraints and upward rate pressure.
• Dry Van: Relatively loose capacity with stagnant or downward rate pressure. Anticipate minor tightening in Q2 due to retail restocking efforts and economic recovery.

Trade & Tariff Updates:

The March 4 tariffs are now in effect, impacting steel, aluminum, electronics, and agricultural products from Mexico, Canada, and China. China has responded with retaliatory tariffs of 10-15% on U.S. coal, crude oil, LNG, soybeans, and auto exports. This has reduced U.S. West Coast exports and created new challenges for cross-border freight flows.

What to Watch for in April:

• Cross-Border Volatility: Continued unpredictability in Midwest and Northeast rates, especially if Mexico and Canada escalate retaliations.
• Shifting Sourcing Strategies: As companies adjust to tariff-driven cost increases, expect changes in freight patterns, especially for industrial lanes and agricultural exports.
• West Coast Freight Flow Concerns: Lower export volumes may impact outbound trucking demand from major ports.
• Rate Fluctuations: Increased volatility expected for lanes tied to retaliatory measures, particularly those moving through key border crossings like Laredo and Detroit.

Forecast: Businesses are likely to continue adjusting sourcing strategies throughout April, with regional rate spikes possible depending on further retaliatory actions and economic conditions. Cross-border volumes may remain unstable, particularly in agriculture-heavy lanes.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

• Capacity: Market remains loose but is expected to gradually tighten as retail restocking and economic recovery progress into Q2. Despite recent downward pressure, some regional improvement is likely by late April.
• Rates: Spot rates fell by 5.6% in February. Minor increases are expected in April and May due to retail restocking, though overall capacity remains ample.
• Regional Trends: The Midwest and Southeast continue to experience oversupply, while cross-border lanes (Laredo, Detroit) remain susceptible to sharp rate spikes from tariff-driven volume surges.

Reefer:

• Capacity: Moderate but tightening, particularly in California, Florida, and Texas, as citrus, berries, and other produce move north. The peak season is expected to drive tightening through April and May.
• Rates: Spot rates dropped 7.1% in February but are beginning to rise with seasonal produce demand. March and April will likely see accelerated tightening as produce peaks, especially in Southern California and Arizona.
• Regional Trends:
  • South Texas and Nogales, AZ: Increased outbound demand as produce season ramps up.
  • Florida: Strawberry & citrus season is contributing to outbound tightening.
  • Midwest: Easter-related demand for dairy, protein, and confectionery is boosting outbound reefer rates.
• Forecast: Rates are expected to continue climbing through April and May. Tariff-related shifts in sourcing and supply chain disruptions may exacerbate regional capacity constraints.

Flatbed:

• Capacity: Steady but tightening, especially in Midwest, Texas, and Southeast regions. Driven by robust construction activity, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago.
• Rates: Stable in February but projected to increase as infrastructure spending, energy projects, and homebuilding continue to rise. Rates are up $0.07 MoM since February.
• Regional Trends:
  • Gulf Coast (Houston, New Orleans): Oil & gas equipment demand is driving higher volumes.
  • Midwest: Steel and lumber shipments are increasing, resulting in tighter capacity.
  • Southeast: Homebuilding remains strong, sustaining growth into Q2.
• Forecast: Flatbed rates will likely continue to rise gradually through May, supported by both government infrastructure projects and private-sector construction demand.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

• As April progresses, regional tightening is expected across reefer and flatbed markets, driven by seasonal produce demand, construction projects, and infrastructure spending.
• Dry van rates will likely experience slight upward pressure as Q2 demand gradually improves, but capacity remains largely available outside of peak seasonal trends.
• Cross-border freight lanes remain volatile, particularly for reefer and flatbed shipments affected by tariffs, seasonal produce, and construction-related imports and exports.

Key Takeaways:

• Dry Van Demand: Market remains loose but may see slight improvements from retail restocking and economic recovery in Q2.
• Reefer Demand: Produce season continues to tighten capacity in California, Florida, Texas, and Mexico, with additional outbound activity expected through May.
• Flatbed Demand: Driven by construction projects, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago, with government infrastructure spending providing consistent support.
• Tariff Impacts: Ongoing tariffs and potential retaliatory measures continue to influence cross-border freight patterns, particularly on lanes connected to Canada, Mexico, and China.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

• West Coast Ports: Lower import volumes as shippers shift supply chains to the Gulf and East Coast ports to avoid tariff exposure.
• Inland Distribution: Increased truckload demand in hubs like Chicago, Memphis, and Dallas as freight is redirected away from congested West Coast ports.

BM2 NEWS

Bonded Freight and BM2

BM2 specializes in bonded freight solutions, helping you defer tariffs and speed up customs clearance amid changing trade regulations (effective March 4). We move bonded shipments like auto parts, electronics, industrial goods, steel, and perishables across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Why Choose BM2?

• Expedited bonded drayage at key ports/airports
• Customs expertise with proper documentation
• Reliable cross-border transport network
• Defer duties, avoid delays, and stay competitive

Recent News:

• Carla Bay, BM2’s Senior Operations Support Manager, led a productive month for BM2 by representing the company at the 51st annual Transportation and Logistics Council (TLC) conference and conducting BM2’s bi-annual Fraud & Theft Prevention training.
  • At the TLC conference, Carla collaborated with industry leaders to share knowledge and explore best practices, reinforcing BM2’s commitment to maintaining its position as a leader and expert in the field. Additionally, she spearheaded the mandatory Fraud & Theft Prevention training, equipping BM2’s team with the latest insights into fraud trends to stay ahead of scammers and ensure customers’ freight remains secure.
• BM2 proudly marked 17 years of serving its customers, staying true to the vision and mission set by founders Matt Mason, Jeff Mason, and Kevin Ball. The company remains dedicated to prioritizing customers and carriers, guided by its core principles: win the day, professionalism, excellence only, and trust the process. These values continue to fuel BM2’s success. A heartfelt thank you goes out to all the customers and carriers who have partnered with BM2 over the past 17 years.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Mexico diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Cargo Theft Surges to Record Levels as Holiday Season Approaches, Verisk CargoNet Analysis Shows | Verisk

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.359/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.715/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.056
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.208

Summary: Diesel prices have dropped 5.6 cents week-over-week and are down 20.8 cents year-over-year, offering slight relief for carriers. The Midwest and Gulf Coast saw the largest declines, while the West Coast remains the most expensive region. However, upcoming tariffs on steel, aluminum, and electronics could drive fuel demand higher, with analysts forecasting a 5-10% diesel price increase if enacted. This would likely push up freight rates, particularly in long-haul and cross-border lanes, as shippers adjust sourcing strategies. While fuel prices remain lower than last year, ongoing geopolitical risks and supply chain shifts could lead to volatility in Q2 2025.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (December – January) $0.05
  • Reefer Markets (December – January) $0.07
  • Flatbed Markets (December – January) $0.06

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

• While post-holiday softening is typical in Q1, freight markets will gradually heat up by mid-Q2, especially in Reefer and Flatbed segments. Shippers should plan capacity ahead of peak surges, especially for perishables and construction-related freight.

Mexico Tariffs Delayed:

• The proposed tariffs on imports from Mexico have been postponed by one month, delaying immediate cost impacts.
• Businesses relying on cross-border trade should use this time to adjust procurement strategies and prepare for potential increases.
• Freight Implications: Delays may cause a spike in volume next month as shippers attempt to move goods before tariffs take effect.

Winter Weather Disruptions Ongoing:

• Severe storms in the Great Lakes and Northeast continue to disrupt freight flow, with delays on I-90, I-81, and I-94.
• Southern California flooding has impacted I-5 and US-101, leading to temporary rerouting.
• Freight Implications: Carriers should factor in transit time delays when planning shipments to and from affected areas.

Cargo Theft Risks:

• High-value shipments (e.g., electronics, consumer goods) face heightened risks during winter delays.
• Preventive Measures: Secure trailers with ISO-compliant seals, use GPS tracking, and avoid leaving freight unattended in high-theft areas.

MARKET PREDICTIONS

Capacity Trends:

• Dry Van: Stable with inventory rebalancing; Q2 demand growth expected from CPG and e-commerce replenishment.
• Reefer: Volatility persists—Valentine’s Day spikes floral shipments in February, Easter demand sustains volumes in March-April, and early produce seasons in CA, FL, and MX tighten capacity into Q2.
• Flatbed: Demand rises March-June with infrastructure projects, residential construction, and industrial shipments driving volume in TX, Southeast, and Midwest corridors.

Rate Trends:

• Dry Van: Gradual growth into Q2, supported by steady Midwest restocking and evolving consumer spending patterns.
• Reefer: Seasonal surges drive fluctuations; rates tighten in Miami, LA, and key Midwest/Southeast markets.
• Flatbed: Rising demand for steel, lumber, and construction materials will push rates higher in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago.

Post-January Market:

• Capacity Rebalancing:
  • After the brief easing of capacity in January, market conditions in February are expected to tighten slightly in response to restocking activity and infrastructure recovery projects, particularly in warmer regions.
  • Ongoing winter weather in the Midwest and Northeast may temporarily strain capacity, causing regional rate fluctuations.
• Trade and Tariff Updates:
  • Tariffs on Key Goods: The proposed tariffs on steel, aluminum, electronics, and agriculture products, originally set to take effect this month, have been postponed by one month. While this provides temporary relief, businesses should remain prepared for potential cost increases if these tariffs are enacted in the coming months.
  • Impact on Freight: While the delay in tariff implementation provides a short-term buffer, increased costs for imported materials could still lead to higher domestic shipping volumes as companies adjust sourcing strategies.
• March Freight Market Outlook:
  • Transitional Period: February serves as a bridge month between post-holiday softness and seasonal demand ramp-ups in March.
  • Reefer Volatility: Seasonal fluctuations persist, with produce seasons in California, Florida, and Mexico driving capacity shifts into Q2.
  • Flatbed Recovery: Capacity will tighten as construction projects gain momentum in warmer regions, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago.
  • Potential Rate Volatility: Tariff discussions and geopolitical factors may create spot rate fluctuations if businesses accelerate freight movement ahead of policy changes.
  • Intermodal & Port Activity: The West Coast remains a key import hub, absorbing excess volume as businesses adjust logistics flows.

SEASONAL TRENDS AND CONSUMER DEMAND

Holiday and Produce Impacts:

• Dry Van: Retail Inventory Rebalancing: Post-holiday shipments are winding down, with Q1 typically seeing a transition as inventory levels adjust from peak-season highs. Expect moderate demand for CPGs and durable goods, with inventory restocking occurring in major regional hubs; E-commerce & Distribution: While online shopping volumes decline post-holidays, warehouse replenishment remains steady, sustaining consistent dry van demand in urban fulfillment zones; Key Markets: Midwest (Chicago, Indianapolis), Southeast (Atlanta, Charlotte), Texas (Dallas, Houston)
• Reefer: Valentine’s Day & Early Spring Produce: Flower shipments from Miami and Los Angeles peak in early February, driving short-term Reefer demand. Simultaneously, Mexico and Southwest U.S. produce seasons continue, increasing load volume for perishables such as strawberries, citrus, and leafy greens; Easter-Driven Perishable Demand: Reefer volumes will climb into March as eggs, dairy, candy, and specialty meats move ahead of the holiday;  Expect higher outbound rates from food processing hubs in the Midwest and Southeast; Key Markets: Florida (Miami, Orlando), California (Fresno, Los Angeles), Midwest (Chicago, St. Louis)
• Flatbed: Construction Ramp-Up: Warmer regions such as Texas, Georgia, and the Midwest will see rising demand for steel, lumber, and construction materials as infrastructure projects resume; Manufacturing & Industrial Freight: Equipment and machinery moves are projected to increase in March, leading to more Flatbed loads from major industrial centers; Key Markets: Texas (Houston, Dallas, San Antonio), Midwest (Chicago, St. Louis), Southeast (Atlanta, Birmingham)

Record Cargo Theft in 2024

• Cargo theft incidents surged 27% YoY, with over 3,625 reported thefts, the highest level on record.
• High-Risk Areas: The largest spikes occurred in California (+33%) and Texas (+39%), particularly in Los Angeles, Dallas, and San Bernardino.
• Targeted Goods: Criminals are increasingly targeting consumer electronics, copper products, and high-value food items (avocados, nuts, protein powders).
• Freight Implications: Shippers and carriers should implement increased security measures, including GPS tracking, ISO-compliant trailer seals, and avoiding high-theft areas for parked freight.

BM2 NEWS

BM2 Freight successfully completed 451 drop trailer shipments in January, helping our customers avoid delays and keep their supply chains running smoothly despite severe winter weather challenges. By leveraging our drop trailer network, we provided flexible, efficient solutions when they were needed most. This is just another example of how BM2 anticipates challenges, adapts, and delivers for our customers, no matter the conditions.

BM2’s commitment to our customers runs deep. In January, we absorbed $90K in losses across 300+ shipments to ensure our contracted lanes were covered, despite massive market rate increases caused by severe winter weather. When others shy away from losses or give freight back, BM2 steps up and delivers. Keeping our promises isn’t just a priority, it’s who we are.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

Cargo Theft Surges to Record Levels as Holiday Season Approaches, Verisk CargoNet Analysis Shows | Verisk

Exclusive | Holiday heist diverts $1M in toys on 3 different trucks in new type of scam

Canada diesel prices, 23-Dec-2024 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

United States Building Permits

Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update (emarketer.com)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

US_2024.pdf (usda.gov)
2024 Supply Chain Risk Trends Analysis | CargoNet

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.539/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.491/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.048
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.607

Summary: Diesel prices have experienced a modest increase week-over-week, influenced by seasonal demand, refinery capacity issues, and geopolitical developments. Despite lower prices compared to last year, the upcoming administration’s tariff proposals on imports could elevate fuel costs further in Q1 2025. Analysts estimate a potential 5-10% increase in diesel prices should tariffs be implemented, driving inflationary pressures across the supply chain. However, a potential shift in domestic energy policies, such as the expansion of refining and drilling, may stabilize or lower costs in the medium term, as seen during the previous Trump administration.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (October – November) $0.08
  • Reefer Markets (October – November) $0.05
  • Flatbed Markets (October – November) $0.04

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

• Seasonal Trends: Seasonal demand has created surges in freight movement, particularly in Dry Van and Reefer equipment. E-commerce and holiday retail freight are leading the charge, with volumes peaking on high-demand lanes in the Midwest and Northeast. Reefer equipment remains under pressure as holiday perishables such as produce, meat, and floral shipments increase. This seasonal spike is expected to persist through mid-December, with inventory replenishments extending into early January.
• Construction and Recovery Projects: While the construction market has seen typical seasonal slowdowns, recovery projects tied to recent Gulf Coast storms are sustaining flatbed demand in southern markets. Warm-weather regions, particularly in Texas, Gulf Coast and coastal Appalachia, are seeing consistent demand for building materials and heavy equipment shipments. This activity contrasts with northern regions, where weather conditions and reduced project timelines are curbing flatbed demand.
• Port Operations: Ongoing West Coast Surge – West Coast ports are experiencing elevated activity due to holiday imports and shifts away from East and Gulf Coast labor disruptions. Volume increases of 15-20% have been noted at key hubs like Los Angeles and Seattle. The ongoing labor uncertainty at East Coast ports, particularly with the looming ILA strike deadline on January 15, 2025, has pushed shippers to rely more heavily on West Coast routes. Inland infrastructure is also under pressure as freight is redistributed to mitigate potential delays.

MARKET PREDICTIONS

• Capacity Trends: Tight capacity persists in Dry Van and Reefer markets, driven by holiday demand surges and seasonal weather disruptions. Flatbed capacity remains regionally balanced, with tightness observed in Gulf Coast areas due to recovery projects, while northern regions see easing availability amid construction slowdowns. Weather-related delays, particularly in the Midwest and West Coast, are expected to exacerbate capacity constraints on key freight corridors.
• Rate Trends: Dry Van: spot rates are up +3.8% month-over-month, driven by peak holiday e-commerce and retail activity. Reefer: spot rates show a modest increase of +0.4% month-over-month, bolstered by perishable goods shipments tied to holiday demand. Flatbed: rates have softened by -0.4% month-over-month, reflecting reduced construction activity outside of storm recovery regions in the Gulf Coast.
• Post-December Market: The conclusion of holiday demand will bring a short-lived easing of capacity in January. However, the potential implementation of new tariffs in Q1 2025 may drive a pull-forward of imports, creating near-term volatility. Reefer and Dry Van demand may also see incremental boosts from post-holiday restocking activity.

SEASONAL TRENDS AND CONSUMER DEMAND

• Holiday Shopping: The holiday season is driving heightened demand for Dry Van and Reefer equipment as retailers and e-commerce platforms push to meet peak season delivery schedules. Seasonal surcharges are common on key lanes, particularly in the Midwest, Northeast, and California. Reefer demand is also surging for perishable freight such as produce, dairy, and meat, with tight capacity causing delays on key Southeast and Midwest corridors.
• Produce Season Impact: Reefer markets are seeing elevated demand in port-adjacent regions like Texas and California, where domestic and imported produce moves through distribution networks. Frost risks in the Southeast are also contributing to localized disruptions, making reefer availability critical for time-sensitive shipments.
• Construction and Flatbed Demand: In Flatbed markets are seeing typical seasonal slowdowns in northern regions as weather conditions curb construction activity. However, Gulf Coast and Coastal Appalachia recovery efforts are creating sustained demand for building materials and equipment, balancing regional demand disparities.

TLDR: Seasonal Trends

• Van Shipments: Rates are up due to holiday and weather disruptions. Expect tight capacity and higher rates through December, with a slight post-holiday dip before a potential rebound in early 2025..
• Reefer Shipments: Rates remain elevated due to strong holiday demand and weather-driven disruptions. Expect capacity constraints to persist, with rates staying high through early 2025
• Flatbed Shipments: Rates show seasonal declines, but Gulf Coast and Coastal Appalachia recovery efforts maintain regional demand. Capacity remains steady with typical winter trends through early 2025.

BM2 NEWS

BM2 is excited to announce that we now offer rail and intermodal shipment services to our clients. As part of our ongoing commitment to growth and strengthening strategic partnerships, we’ve expanded into intermodal transportation. This allows us to deliver the same exceptional service our customers rely on, now across a broader range of logistics solutions.

BM2 is thrilled to welcome 11 new customers to our growing network! We’re dedicated to delivering exceptional service and tailored solutions to meet their unique needs. As we continue to expand, we’re not only enhancing our service offerings but also strengthening our commitment to excellence in every partnership.

BM2 has been successfully developing large-scale drop trailer programs designed to reduce costs by eliminating lengthy loading times, detention, and additional accessorial charges. Drop trailer programs are one of our core specialties, and we take pride in partnering with customers and shippers to design and implement these efficient, cost-saving solutions. We have successfully coordinated over 3,000 drop trailer movements this year and are expecting to grow these programs into 2025!

Cargo Theft

October 2024 saw high cargo theft activity in key hotspots like Southern California, Fort Worth/Dallas, Chicago, and Memphis. Electronics were the top target, with California alone accounting for 60% of incidents, followed by Arizona and Texas at 15% each. Theft methods were dominated by pilferage (52%) and full truckload theft (27%), while facility theft rose slightly in areas like SOCAL and Dallas. Sundays and the midnight-to-noon timeframe saw the highest theft spikes.

Looking ahead to December, theft risks will escalate as holiday volumes peak. Electronics, consumer goods, and parcels will remain key targets, with hotspots like SOCAL, Texas, and the Midwest staying active. Criminals are expected to exploit extended holiday breaks, targeting shipments left in unsecured areas. Into early 2025, theft may dip post-holidays, but high-value freight like electronics will remain at risk. Weather-related delays could create new opportunities for theft, particularly in northern states. Organized rings will likely continue targeting major freight hubs, making robust security measures essential.

To mitigate risks, secure trailers with ISO-compliant seals and GPS tracking, avoid leaving freight unattended, and partner with carriers prioritizing security.

DID YOU KNOW

Did you know over the last 3 years BM2 has successfully shipped over 7,000 high-value shipments? BM2 prides itself on going the extra mile to ensure the highest level of security, reliability, and care for each shipment. Our team is dedicated to protecting your valuable cargo with rigorous tracking, specialized handling, and robust risk management, giving you peace of mind that your high-value goods are in trusted hands every step of the way.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 21-Oct-2024 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Construction Market Trends for August 2024 – Building Permit Data

Worldwide Retail Ecommerce Forecast 2024 Midyear Update (emarketer.com)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

US_2024.pdf (usda.gov)