Market Update April 2025
Industry Market Trends
GENERAL MARKET TRENDS
Fuel Index:
- Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.592/gallon
- Last Week: $3.567/gallon
- Weekly Change:
$0.025
- Year-over-Year Change:
$0.404
Summary: Diesel prices rose slightly by $0.025 WoW, maintaining a gradual upward trend. The largest increases were noted along the West Coast and Gulf Coast, driven by lingering supply chain constraints and seasonal refinery maintenance. With tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China now active since March 4, 2025, analysts anticipate potential further diesel price increases of 5-10% in Q2, particularly impacting long-haul and cross-border freight. As refinery maintenance continues, expect regional fuel price volatility to persist through April and May.
Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
RPM Monthly Movers:
- National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (February – March)
$0.03
- Reefer Markets (February – March)
$0.08
- Flatbed Markets (February – March)
$0.09
- Dry Van Markets (February – March)
POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS
Seasonal Trends:
As Q1 transitions into Q2, freight markets are facing mixed conditions. Reefer demand is expected to rise sharply with produce season gains in California, Florida, and Mexico, while flatbed markets tighten due to infrastructure projects and seasonal construction activity. Tariffs and cross-border volatility continue to impact key trade lanes, creating regional rate disparities. Van capacity remains loose but may stabilize if retail restocking picks up. Expect gradual tightening across reefer and flatbed markets.
- Reefer: Produce season is underway, with increasing demand from California, Florida, and Mexico. Volatility is expected through April and May as produce flows intensify, especially citrus and berries.
- Flatbed: Elevated demand due to construction season, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago. Infrastructure projects are bolstering demand, leading to regional capacity constraints and upward rate pressure.
- Dry Van: Relatively loose capacity with stagnant or downward rate pressure. Anticipate minor tightening in Q2 due to retail restocking efforts and economic recovery.
Trade & Tariff Updates:
The March 4 tariffs are now in effect, impacting steel, aluminum, electronics, and agricultural products from Mexico, Canada, and China. China has responded with retaliatory tariffs of 10-15% on U.S. coal, crude oil, LNG, soybeans, and auto exports. This has reduced U.S. West Coast exports and created new challenges for cross-border freight flows.
What to Watch for in April:
- Cross-Border Volatility: Continued unpredictability in Midwest and Northeast rates, especially if Mexico and Canada escalate retaliations.
- Shifting Sourcing Strategies: As companies adjust to tariff-driven cost increases, expect changes in freight patterns, especially for industrial lanes and agricultural exports.
- West Coast Freight Flow Concerns: Lower export volumes may impact outbound trucking demand from major ports.
- Rate Fluctuations: Increased volatility expected for lanes tied to retaliatory measures, particularly those moving through key border crossings like Laredo and Detroit.
Forecast: Businesses are likely to continue adjusting sourcing strategies throughout April, with regional rate spikes possible depending on further retaliatory actions and economic conditions. Cross-border volumes may remain unstable, particularly in agriculture-heavy lanes.
MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS
Capacity & Rate Trends:
Dry Van:
- Capacity: Market remains loose but is expected to gradually tighten as retail restocking and economic recovery progress into Q2. Despite recent downward pressure, some regional improvement is likely by late April.
- Rates: Spot rates fell by 5.6% in February. Minor increases are expected in April and May due to retail restocking, though overall capacity remains ample.
- Regional Trends: The Midwest and Southeast continue to experience oversupply, while cross-border lanes (Laredo, Detroit) remain susceptible to sharp rate spikes from tariff-driven volume surges.
Reefer:
- Capacity: Moderate but tightening, particularly in California, Florida, and Texas, as citrus, berries, and other produce move north. The peak season is expected to drive tightening through April and May.
- Rates: Spot rates dropped 7.1% in February but are beginning to rise with seasonal produce demand. March and April will likely see accelerated tightening as produce peaks, especially in Southern California and Arizona.
- Regional Trends:
- South Texas and Nogales, AZ: Increased outbound demand as produce season ramps up.
- Florida: Strawberry & citrus season is contributing to outbound tightening.
- Midwest: Easter-related demand for dairy, protein, and confectionery is boosting outbound reefer rates.
- Forecast: Rates are expected to continue climbing through April and May. Tariff-related shifts in sourcing and supply chain disruptions may exacerbate regional capacity constraints.
Flatbed:
- Capacity: Steady but tightening, especially in Midwest, Texas, and Southeast regions. Driven by robust construction activity, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago.
- Rates: Stable in February but projected to increase as infrastructure spending, energy projects, and homebuilding continue to rise. Rates are up $0.07 MoM since February.
- Regional Trends:
- Gulf Coast (Houston, New Orleans): Oil & gas equipment demand is driving higher volumes.
- Midwest: Steel and lumber shipments are increasing, resulting in tighter capacity.
- Southeast: Homebuilding remains strong, sustaining growth into Q2.
- Forecast: Flatbed rates will likely continue to rise gradually through May, supported by both government infrastructure projects and private-sector construction demand.
Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:
- As April progresses, regional tightening is expected across reefer and flatbed markets, driven by seasonal produce demand, construction projects, and infrastructure spending.
- Dry van rates will likely experience slight upward pressure as Q2 demand gradually improves, but capacity remains largely available outside of peak seasonal trends.
- Cross-border freight lanes remain volatile, particularly for reefer and flatbed shipments affected by tariffs, seasonal produce, and construction-related imports and exports.
Key Takeaways:
- Dry Van Demand: Market remains loose but may see slight improvements from retail restocking and economic recovery in Q2.
- Reefer Demand: Produce season continues to tighten capacity in California, Florida, Texas, and Mexico, with additional outbound activity expected through May.
- Flatbed Demand: Driven by construction projects, particularly in Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago, with government infrastructure spending providing consistent support.
- Tariff Impacts: Ongoing tariffs and potential retaliatory measures continue to influence cross-border freight patterns, particularly on lanes connected to Canada, Mexico, and China.
Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:
- West Coast Ports: Lower import volumes as shippers shift supply chains to the Gulf and East Coast ports to avoid tariff exposure.
- Inland Distribution: Increased truckload demand in hubs like Chicago, Memphis, and Dallas as freight is redirected away from congested West Coast ports.
Transportation Events |
Upcoming Holidays |
Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/XPO, May 5th – 7th, 2025
Procurment & Supply Chain LIVE: Chicago, June 4th – 5th, 2025 |
Easter Sunday, April 20th, 2025
Memorial Day, May 26th, 2025 |
BM2 NEWS
Bonded Freight and BM2
BM2 specializes in bonded freight solutions, helping you defer tariffs and speed up customs clearance amid changing trade regulations (effective March 4). We move bonded shipments like auto parts, electronics, industrial goods, steel, and perishables across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.
Why Choose BM2?
- Expedited bonded drayage at key ports/airports
- Customs expertise with proper documentation
- Reliable cross-border transport network
- Defer duties, avoid delays, and stay competitive
Recent News:
- Carla Bay, BM2’s Senior Operations Support Manager, led a productive month for BM2 by representing the company at the 51st annual Transportation and Logistics Council (TLC) conference and conducting BM2’s bi-annual Fraud & Theft Prevention training.
- At the TLC conference, Carla collaborated with industry leaders to share knowledge and explore best practices, reinforcing BM2’s commitment to maintaining its position as a leader and expert in the field. Additionally, she spearheaded the mandatory Fraud & Theft Prevention training, equipping BM2’s team with the latest insights into fraud trends to stay ahead of scammers and ensure customers’ freight remains secure.
- BM2 proudly marked 17 years of serving its customers, staying true to the vision and mission set by founders Matt Mason, Jeff Mason, and Kevin Ball. The company remains dedicated to prioritizing customers and carriers, guided by its core principles: win the day, professionalism, excellence only, and trust the process. These values continue to fuel BM2’s success. A heartfelt thank you goes out to all the customers and carriers who have partnered with BM2 over the past 17 years.
INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Canada diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com
Mexico diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com
CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network
State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)
US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive
Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)