Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.718 gallon
  • Last Week: $3.620/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.098
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.145

Summary: With oil oversupply flagged by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and falling crude prices, expect fuel surcharges to remain stable or ease unless geopolitical disruption or refinery outages intervene.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (September – October) $0.02
  • Reefer Markets (September- October) $0.04
  • Flatbed Markets (September- October) $0.01

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Summary: the freight market is shifting firmly into Q4 with tightening conditions driven by holiday restocking, seasonal retail surges, and increasing parcel and e-commerce volumes. Over-the-road demand is climbing across major regional corridors, particularly in high-turn lanes supporting consumer goods and replenishment cycles. Simultaneously, summer-driven freight like construction materials, HVAC, and Pacific Northwest produce is tapering off, freeing up some capacity in flatbed and reefer markets—but not enough to offset tightening elsewhere.

A major development in reshaping the capacity landscape is FMCSA’s new rule on non-domiciled CDL holders, which took effect on September 29. This rule restricts access for many foreign-based drivers by imposing stricter eligibility and documentation standards. With over 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders in the U.S. pool, the impact will be felt by most —particularly for fleets and brokerages reliant on cross-border and long-haul coverage.

As driver availability contracts and demand intensifies, expect over-the-road capacity to tighten further heading into November. Rate pressure is building and the cost of securing compliant, reliable coverage is rising. Shippers and brokers should prepare with early booking strategies, live quoting, and contingency planning to stay ahead of seasonal volatility.

• Reefer: Late season apples from WA/OR are ramping, and fall harvests (pumpkins, squash) are coming to an end. Border crossings (Nogales, McAllen) remain active with produce and e commerce perishables. Capacity remains constrained in key lanes across the nation. Rates are on an upward trend.
• Dry Van: Import driven flows via East and Gulf Coast ports (Savannah, Charleston, Houston) are tightening capacity into retail/DC networks for holiday prep. Inland regions still show oversupply and slower demand. Capacity push for holiday season is putting pressure on rates to continue to climb.
• Flatbed: Infrastructure, energy, and utility project freight remains strong. Residential construction tails off in many regions, easing some capacity pressure, but industrial lanes and tariff impacted steel/pipe freight are holding tight.  

    Major Capacity Disruptors:

• FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Ruling Now in Effect
  • The rule could sideline tens of thousands of drivers, especially within team-based or cross-border fleets that rely on foreign-born operators. Brokerages should expect reduced availability in long-haul lanes, especially those requiring expedited or team service, and watch for carrier churn in late Q4 and early 2026 as renewals trigger compliance fallout.
  • Expected Impact on Capacity:
    • Driver Attrition: Immediate reduction in active CDL holders from expirations or failed verifications.
    • Delayed Renewals: Some drivers may fall out of service due to backlogs at DMV offices or SAVE verifications.
    • Cross-Border Tension: Increased pressure on domestic U.S. fleets to replace lost labor, particularly in drayage, regional, and last-mile roles.
    • Carrier Risk: Fleets relying heavily on immigrant driver pools may experience higher turnover and restricted availability, especially small carriers or lease-ops.
    • Rate Pressure: Expect upward pressure on spot rates in key regions (TX, CA, NJ, IL) starting late Q4 as capacity tightens gradually.
  • S.–China Tariff Truce: Transportation Market Impacts
    • On October 29, 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary one-year trade truce. The U.S. reduced tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports—from 57% to 47%—while China paused its planned rare-earth export restrictions. Though this agreement avoids escalation, it does not fully reverse tariffs or solve core structural issues.
  • Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded
    • The Trump administration’s June expansion of Section 232 tariffs now covers 407 additional product lines and $320B in imports. This includes auto parts, plastics, and specialty construction inputs. Midwest flatbed lanes (OH, IL, PA, AL) remain tight as industrial and construction freight flows surge. Domestic substitution and sourcing shifts are amplifying rate volatility in key manufacturing corridors like Detroit and Chicago.
  • Port Volumes Redirected, Inland Hubs Saturated
    • LA/Long Beach remain down ~10–12% YoY as more freight is funneled to Savannah, Charleston, Houston, and Veracruz. This is fueling rate swings and warehouse congestion in Dallas, Atlanta, and Chicago, particularly for time-sensitive or transloaded freight. Expect continued modal shifts through at least Q1 2026.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

• Capacity: Tightening
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.02 increase
• Forecast: Expect continued rate upward trend in warehouse-heavy corridors and mixed pressure near retail restocking zones as Q4 unfolds. Port-to-DC lanes may firm by mid-November..

Reefer

• Capacity: Tightening
  • Remains tight in WA/OR (apples, pears) and Southwest border zones (Nogales, McAllen) with fall produce in full swing. However, California and Florida volumes are tapering.
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.04 increase
• Forecast: October peak expected in PNW and border produce lanes. Rates are likely to hold steady or rise modestly into early November due to harvest and holiday-driven e-commerce perishables.

Flatbed

• Capacity: Softening
  • Constrained in steel, pipe, and energy lanes (TX, AL, OK), but softening in residential corridors as construction season winds down. Infrastructure and grid freight still supporting volume in the Southeast and Midwest.
• Rates: Steady Trend. MoM no change.
• Forecast: As construction season comes to an end, expect seasonal softening with flatbed freight. Expect selective firmness through Q4, especially around industrial hubs and port-linked manufacturing zones.

Key Takeaways

• FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Ruling: Immediately impacted 200,000 drivers. Expected to impact additional drivers over the next 5 to 12 months as CDL renewals come up. This will have a big impact on carriers, drivers, and capacity nationwide.
• Q4 Holiday Surge & Capacity Compression: As we enter the peak holiday shipping window, nationwide capacity is expected to tighten, particularly across major intermodal and retail distribution corridors (e.g., SoCal → Midwest, Savannah → Northeast, Dallas → Chicago). Coupled with elevated seasonal demand, this is likely to drive upward pressure on spot rates and tender rejections, especially for time-sensitive freight and replenishment loads.
• U.S.–China Trade Truce Effect on Import Volumes: The recent 10% tariff reduction under the U.S.–China trade truce is expected to stimulate short-term import growth, particularly for consumer electronics, packaged goods, and seasonal inventory. This shift coincides with increased retail procurement for the holidays, potentially amplifying the capacity crunch with increased volumes expected to arrive in late November.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

• Did you know BM2 Freight attended the CSCMP EDGE 2025 conference this October in National Harbor, MD? Our VP of Sales – Pete Katai, joined industry leaders to discuss emerging trends, tech-driven freight solutions, and transportation strategy. BM2’s presence reflects our growing influence in the logistics space and our commitment to staying ahead of market shifts to better serve our customers.
• Did you know BM2 had a record breaking Q3? We broke out all time shipment count record and customer acquisition record. Businesses across the U.S. and Canada are turning to BM2 for dependable, high-touch service that prioritizes transparency, compliance, and operational precision. Our growth is a direct result of putting shippers first—offering tailored solutions backed by data-driven strategy and proactive communication.
• Did you know that BM2 Freight attended the Cargo Theft and Transportation Summit hosted by Verisk CargoNet? Snr. Operations Support Manager – Carla Bay represented BM2 at this conference below are her insights after attending the conference:
  • “I had the privilege of attending the Cargo Theft and Transportation Summit hosted by Verisk CargoNet & Travelers.  Cargo theft is still a huge concern and cost drain for the industry, with strategic theft being the hardest to combat.  With the cargo theft boom following the pandemic, there was just not enough education and knowledge in the industry to combat it.  Fortunately, with organizations like Verisk CargoNet and Travelers, they are educating not only those in the industry but also law enforcement across the country A major thread was CDL issuance, especially non-domiciled CDLs. Freight demand isn’t letting up, so more non-residents have been pushed through licensing to keep freight moving. One example cited: Kentucky issued 1,775 CDLs in 2021, 1,859 in 2022, 1,545 in 2023—and 53,686 in 2024. With stepped-up enforcement of existing CDL requirements, expect some capacity to tighten as questionable licenses are revoked. Plan accordingly. Bottom line: cargo thieves are adapting. So must we. Brokers, shippers, and intermediaries must execute real due diligence—every load, every handoff, every time. Trust, but verify. Partner with the correct transportation providers and reduce your risk of theft!

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. EIA

Regional disparity grows as truckload capacity tightens – FreightWaves

Interim Final Ruling: Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Drivers Licenses (CDL) | FMCSA

Drivers speaking up are mostly against FMCSA’s emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs, public comments show

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/largest-capacity-purge-in-history-coming

State of Freight – FTR Intel

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) – FRED

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) – FRED

Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths | Reuters

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.734 gallon
  • Last Week: $3.708/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.026
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.109

Summary: Diesel prices rose modestly, led by California (+1.1% WoW). Canadian prices declined on strong refinery output and favorable exchange rates. Mexican prices are stabilizing following subsidy shifts.

Outlook: Fuel prices are expected to remain rangebound through September unless disrupted by refinery outages or global tensions. Regional fuel surcharges will remain in place, particularly for freight originating on the West Coast or crossing international borders.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (July – August) $0.04
  • Reefer Markets (July – August) $0.07
  • Flatbed Markets (July – August) $0.05

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As September unfolds, the freight market is transitioning from peak produce and construction to retail restocking, fall harvests, and infrastructure project closeouts. Modal tightness varies by lane:

While national capacity continues to rebalance post-August, market conditions remain fragmented across equipment types and regions.

• Reefer: capacity remains tight in pockets, especially around the Pacific Northwest and U.S.–Mexico border crossings (e.g., Nogales, McAllen), where late-season berries, citrus, and early apple harvests are sustaining volume. This tightness is further compounded by limited backhaul opportunities, forcing carriers to reposition assets and accept higher lead times.

• Flatbed: demand remains elevated, but capacity is becoming more available in the Southeast and Midwest as residential construction slows and roofing season begins to taper. Still, regions like Texas and Alabama remain hot spots due to steel coil shipments, infrastructure projects, and utility freight tied to grid upgrades and pipeline builds.
• Dry Van: markets are bifurcated: capacity near ports like Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk is tightening as retail restocking and transload flows increase, while Midwest corridors remain oversupplied, bogged down by elevated warehouse inventories and weaker domestic consumer demand. This imbalance is producing wide spot rate variability depending on lane direction, port proximity, and exposure to tariff-diverted imports.to rerouted Asian imports and tariff-driven shifts, while capacity in the Midwest stays loose amid elevated warehouse inventories and continued demand softness.

    Other Disruptors:

• Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded: The Trump administration expanded Section 232 tariffs to 407 additional product categories, now covering $320B in imports. Affected items include auto parts, plastics, construction materials, and specialty chemicals, driving rate volatility and constrained flatbed capacity in OH, IL, PA, AL. Domestic substitution is accelerating, especially in Detroit and Chicago, where industrial freight is concentrating.
•  China Tariff Reinstatement: The Section 301 exclusions were extended through November 29, 2025, delaying full reinstatement. However, rerouting through Mexico and Canada continues, sustaining cross-border dry van and LTL demand. Expect renewed pressure in Q4 as the extension nears expiration.
• Cross-Border Freight Strained by Enforcement & E-Commerce: Mexico exports are up 6.3% YoY, led by non-auto manufacturing (computers, electronics) CBP enforcement remains tight, especially for compliance-sensitive freight. E-commerce flows are surging, but visa pauses and cabotage scrutiny are creating operational risk for late-day cross-border loads.
• Port Volume Redirection & Inland Stress: West Coast ports (LA/Long Beach) are down ~10–12% YoY, while Savannah, Norfolk, Charleston, Houston absorb diverted volumes. Inland hubs (Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago) face rate swings due to warehouse saturation and rail imbalances. Blank sailings and schedule disruptions are common as carriers adjust to demand shifts.
• Middle East Tensions Escalate: Diesel futures spiked ~8% to $2.37/gal, following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. U.S. diesel inventories are 15% below average, amplifying cost sensitivity. Insurance premiums and route diversions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing freight costs and planning complexity.
• Labor & Rail Watch: U.S. railroads show intermodal growth (+1.2% YoY) but carload softness, reflecting uneven industrial demand. New Jersey’s AB5-style labor proposal could tighten drayage capacity by reclassifying owner-operators. Canada: Low water levels at Montreal are triggering Low Water Surcharges; labor tensions remain unresolved, posing Q4 disruption risk.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

• Capacity: Tightening near Gulf and East Coast ports as import flows shift inland. LTR declined ~5% MoM from June peaks but remains healthy.
• Rates: National average is flat MoM, up 0.5% YoY, Regional highs in order: Midwest, Southwest, and closing out the highs Southeast
• Forecast: Expect firm port-to-inland freight through late September. Watch for hurricane season disruptions and Q4 retail ramp-up.

Reefer

• Capacity: Tight in WA/OR (berries, apples), TX/NM border zones (citrus, melons). Border lanes strained due to cross border produce, compliance-sensitive freight, and CBP inspections.
• Rates: Flat MoM, down 1.3% YoY Load-to-truck ratios surged 44% YoY, indicating carrier scarcity
• Forecast: Seasonal produce will taper in October, but border compliance and cross-border e-commerce will keep demand firm.

Flatbed

• Capacity: Still tight in TX, Southeast, Midwest, driven by steel, pipe, and energy freight. Seasonal easing in roofing and residential construction is offset by infrastructure and utility projects.
• Rates: National average is down from August, but still up 1.2% YoY. Regional highs in order: Southeast, Southwest, and finally Midwest
• Forecast: Expect rate pressure to persist through Q4, especially in tariff-affected lanes and energy corridors.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

• Dry Van: Tightening near Gulf and East Coast ports (Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk) due to retail restocking, transload flows, and e-commerce replenishment. The Midwest remains oversupplied, with elevated warehouse inventories and soft consumer demand creating loose capacity and rate compression.
  • Outlook: Expect lane-specific firmness in port-to-inland corridors through late September. Watch for hurricane season disruptions, which could tighten capacity further in coastal regions.
• Reefer: Among the tightest segments, especially in WA/OR (late-season berries, apples), TX/NM (citrus, melons), and border crossings (Nogales, McAllen). Compliance-sensitive freight and cross-border produce are sustaining demand despite seasonal tapering.
  •  Outlook: Conditions will ease slightly in October as harvests wind down, but border lanes will remain active due to ongoing enforcement and e-commerce-driven perishables
• Flatbed: Still historically tight, especially in TX, AL, PA, driven by steel coil shipments, energy infrastructure, and grid-related utility freight. Residential construction is slowing, but industrial and public works projects are keeping demand elevated.
  • Outlook: Tariff volatility and infrastructure spending will sustain rate pressure through Q4, particularly in Midwest industrial lanes and Gulf Coast corridors.
• Cross border freight:
  • Mexico: Persistent 4–6 hour delays at key crossings (Laredo, Nogales, El Paso) due to heightened customs enforcement and compliance inspections. Non-auto manufacturing exports (electronics, appliances, textiles) are surging, driving dry van and LTL demand.
  • Canada: Volume rising, supported by Ontario’s $1B Protect Financing Program and Alberta’s pipeline progress. Montreal port operations face risk from low water levels, triggering surcharges and rerouting to Halifax.
  • Outlook: Nearshoring trends and USMCA strategies will continue to drive strong cross-border flows. Live quoting remains critical for high-compliance freight.
• LTL: Stable and resilient, with growth sustained by aftermarket parts, industrial shipments, and cross-border compliance-sensitive freight. Border regions like Laredo, Detroit, and Nogales remain high-volume hot spots. Outlook: Industry expects 1.6% volume growth in 2025, supported by tech-driven optimization, parcel integration, and rate stabilization. LTL carriers are investing in automated hubs and dynamic pricing tools to manage volatility.

Key Takeaways

• Dry Van: Strategic freight reshuffling is underway, with rerouting through Mexico and Canada to avoid Section 232 and 301 duties. This is fueling cross-border dry van and LTL demand, especially in compliance-heavy sectors.
• Reefer Demand: Strategic freight reshuffling is underway, with rerouting through Mexico and Canada to avoid Section 232 and 301 duties. This is fueling cross-border dry van and LTL demand, especially in compliance-heavy sectors.
• Flatbed Demand: Steel tariffs and infrastructure projects are driving sustained demand in TX, AL, PA, and Midwest corridors. Energy, pipe, and utility freight remain strong, while roofing and residential construction begin to taper. Carrier exits and backlog orders are amplifying spot rate swings.
• Tariff Impacts: Steel tariffs and infrastructure projects are driving sustained demand in TX, AL, PA, and Midwest corridors. Energy, pipe, and utility freight remain strong, while roofing and residential construction begin to taper. Carrier exits and backlog orders are amplifying spot rate swings.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

West Coast:

• LA/Long Beach: Still operating ~10–15% below YoY. Blank sailings and reduced China-origin bookings persist.
• Seattle/Tacoma: Flat volumes; intermodal capacity remains underutilized.

 Outlook: Modal leakage to Gulf and East Coast ports continues amid tariff-driven shifts.

East Coast:

• Savannah & Charleston: Volume gains supported by improved customs and rail efficiency. Retailers favoring these ports for Q4 replenishment.
• Virginia (Norfolk): Strong LTL and compliance-sensitive flows, especially in consumer-packaged goods.

 Outlook: Nearshoring and import staging will sustain growth through Q4.

Gulf Coast:

• Houston: Steady volumes with growing inland tightness. Chassis shortages and export imbalances remain a concern.
• Veracruz & Ensenada: Emerging as key Mexico–Asia–U.S. bypass hubs, supporting tariff-diverted freight.

Outlook: High energy and industrial flows are tightening Dallas–Atlanta–Chicago corridors.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

• Did you know BM2 continues to grow? July was a record-breaking month for us — both in new customer acquisitions and in total load count. More and more shippers are seeing why BM2 is the difference maker in their supply chain. We keep things simple by focusing on what matters most: integrity, clear communication, and excellence in execution.
• BM2 joined the Bitfreighter team at the Karen Cameron User Golf Tournament benefiting the ALS Foundation.  Our team at BM2 Freight had an amazing time connecting with industry peers, supporting a meaningful cause, and celebrating community. The highlight? Walking away with the Best New Customer Award 🏆! We’re proud to be part of this growing network and supporting such a great cause.
• Did you know over 70% of the food in the U.S. is moved by truck? That means your morning avocado toast, your Friday night pizza, and even your Thanksgiving turkey all hitched a ride on a trailer before reaching your plate. At BM2 Freight, we love being part of that story. Whether it’s fresh produce, frozen goods, or anything in between—we make sure food gets where it needs to go, when it needs to be there.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 01-Sep-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Mexico diesel prices, 01-Sep-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Federal Reserve Economic Data | FRED | St. Louis Fed

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.758 gallon
  • Last Week: $3.739/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.19
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.068

Summary:

U.S. diesel prices edged slightly higher as Middle East tensions disrupted shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. West Coast prices saw the sharpest uptick (+0.9%), while Midwest and Gulf Coast remained stable. Canadian diesel holds near ~$4.01/gal USD (↓12.6% YoY). Mexican diesel climbed to ~$5.07/gal USD (↑5.0% YoY) as refinery bottlenecks and subsidy reductions continue to influence pricing.

Outlook: Elevated geopolitical risk may pressure global fuel markets through Q3. Watch for potential surcharges on long-haul lanes as volatility lingers.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (June – July) $0.07
  • Reefer Markets (June – July) $0.08
  • Flatbed Markets (June – July) $0.03

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As we are making our way through July, the freight market is navigating heightened regional volatility driven by overlapping seasonal factors:

• Peak produce season in key agricultural regions
• Summer construction projects across the Southeast and Gulf
• Port realignment flows due to trade shifts and tariff impacts

While national capacity is gradually rebalancing post-June, select lanes remain under intense pressure. Reefers and flatbeds continue leading modal tightness, while dry van markets show mixed signals tied to port activity and regional retail demand.

• Reefer: Late-season produce volumes remain elevated, driven by strong movement of berries, stone fruit, and citrus; this surge is straining reefer capacity, with LTR up ~46% MoM as trucks concentrate in key corridors (Nogales, McAllen, Lakeland), resulting in extended lead times and elevated spot premiums.
• Flatbed: Energy, housing, and industrial freight continue to dominate demand. While LTR declined ~9% MoM from June’s peak, it remains historically high; heavy steel and project freight in Texas and the Gulf are sustaining regional pressure, and Southeast lanes remain congested with construction materials such as pipe, lumber, and roofing.
• Dry Van: Port-driven shifts are reshaping inland freight patterns, rebalancing capacity across regions. LTR fell ~5% MoM but remains tight near Gulf and East Coast ports (Houston, Savannah, Norfolk) due to rerouted Asian imports and tariff-driven shifts, while capacity in the Midwest stays loose amid elevated warehouse inventories and continued demand softness.

Other Disruptors:

• Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded:
  On June 4, 2025, the Trump administration doubled Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. The expanded measures also target derivative goods, including EV components, solar panels, and select construction inputs from China and Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia). This escalation is already impacting Midwest flatbed lanes, especially corridors through Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, where inbound industrial freight and construction materials are driving spot rate increases and tightening capacity.
• U.S.–China Tariff Pause ENDS:
  The U.S.–China tariff truce, initially established on May 12, 2025, is scheduled to expire on August 12. However, phased reinstatements began affecting markets as early as late June, particularly targeting strategic imports. As a result, tariffs on electric vehicles, electronics, and solar panels have returned to elevated levels, ranging from 30% to 50%. These measures fall under renewed enforcement of Section 301 and Section 232 authorities. In response, shippers are increasingly rerouting freight through Mexico and Canada to sidestep direct U.S. import duties. This shift is fueling cross-border demand, especially for dry van and LTL capacity, as companies leverage USMCA provisions and in-bond strategies to mitigate cost exposure.
• Cross-Border Freight Conditions:
  Cross-border freight conditions are under strain as increased enforcement efforts and shifting trade patterns reshape traffic at U.S.–Mexico ports of entry. While overall volumes remain steady, the dynamics between truckload and LTL activity are evolving due to ongoing nearshoring and tariff-related rerouting.
  • Border congestion continues to intensify, with commercial wait times at key crossings (Laredo, Nogales, El Paso) averaging 4–6 hours, driven by heightened customs scrutiny and trade compliance inspections.
  • LTL and reefer lanes remain active, supported by strong demand for compliance-sensitive freight like auto parts, dairy, and produce; this is helping offset outbound truckload softness, buoyed further by rising cross-border e-commerce and aftermarket part shipments.
• Port Diversions & Inland Shift:
  West Coast ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland): Volumes remain ~10% below YoY averages due to tariff-related shifts, blank sailings, and weaker China-origin bookings.
  Gulf & East Coast ports (Houston, Savannah, Charleston): Continue absorbing diverted freight, driving heavier inland flows into Dallas, Atlanta, and Chicago.
  These modal shifts are creating tight regional capacity near transload zones and inconsistent spot pricing.
• Middle East Tensions Escalate
  Drone strikes and naval skirmishes in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf in early July have elevated U.S. naval alert levels to DEFCON 3. A near-collision between an Iranian patrol vessel and a U.S.-flagged tanker further intensified risks.
  Diesel futures rose to $2.37/gal as oil supply concerns and shipping reroutes through the Cape of Good Hope add transit days. Freight flows through Middle East-connected trade lanes remain at risk of disruption.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

• Capacity: Tightening near Gulf and East Coast ports as import flows shift inland. LTR declined ~5% MoM from June peaks but remains healthy.
• Rates: Overall flat. Up $0.07 MoM (+3.5%), holding at ~$2.07/mi, still the lowest among equipment types.
• Forecast: Expect modest firmness in port-driven lanes through Q3 while oversupplied regions remain stable.

Reefer:

• Capacity: Tight nationwide as peak produce flows persist.
• Rates: Up $0.08 MoM (+3.4%), now averaging ~$2.45/mi. Capacity constraints continue to support rates.
• Forecast: Seasonal pressure should ease post-July as harvest peaks wind down, though cross-border lanes will stay active.

Flatbed:

• Capacity: Eased slightly from June peaks but remains historically tight.
• Rates: Down $0.03 MoM (–1.1%), holding firm at ~$2.54–$2.59/mi, still the highest of all equipment types.
• Forecast: Energy, infrastructure, and tariff-driven steel demand to maintain pressure on key regions, particularly Southeast and Midwest corridors.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

• Dry Van: Generally balanced nationwide, but tightening is evident in Gulf and East Coast corridors as rerouted imports drive inland distribution. Outlook: Retail restocking and e-commerce activity are supporting firmer demand near port hubs. Midwest remains softer due to lingering warehouse overstock.
• Reefer: Capacity: Among the tightest segments, fueled by late-season produce volumes from the Pacific Northwest (berries), California (stone fruit), and Florida (citrus). Outlook: Conditions should ease slightly post-July as seasonal harvests taper, but cross-border produce flows will keep Nogales and McAllen lanes active.
• Flatbed: Capacity: Softened slightly from June’s highs but remains historically elevated. Hot Regions: Texas, Gulf Coast, and Southeast are leading activity, driven by energy, housing, and steel-related freight. Outlook: Tariff-related volatility in steel shipments could amplify spot rate swings in Midwest industrial lanes.
• Cross border freight: Mexico: Persistent 4–6 hour border delays tied to heightened customs enforcement. Canada: Alberta’s pipeline progress is boosting outbound volumes into U.S. manufacturing regions. Outlook: Nearshoring continues to drive strong dry van and LTL demand. Live quoting remains critical on high-compliance freight.
• LTL: Stable and resilient. Growth is sustained by aftermarket parts, compliance-sensitive shipments, and nearshoring-driven cross-border flows. Hot Spots: Border regions like Laredo, Detroit, and Nogales continue to see high volumes.
  

Key Takeaways:

• Dry Van Demand: Firming near Gulf/East Coast ports; Midwest still soft.
• Reefer Demand: Tight but set to moderate post-July.
• Flatbed Demand: Strong—energy and infrastructure freight leading; Midwest lanes watching steel tariff impact
• Tariff Impacts: 50% steel and aluminum tariffs are already driving Midwest spot rate volatility.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

• West Coast:
  • LA/Long Beach: Operating ~10–15% below YoY averages, pressured by weaker transpacific volumes, persistent blank sailings, and importers increasingly favoring Gulf and East Coast gateways to avoid tariff exposure.
  • Seattle/Tacoma: Volumes remain flat with no meaningful rebound. Northwest rail intermodal is still underutilized due to limited diversification of import origins.
  • Outlook: Without a significant tariff rollback or renewed China import activity, West Coast volumes are likely to stay muted. Expect continued modal leakage to Gulf and East Coast ports through Q3.
• East Coast:
  • Savannah & Charleston: Gaining market share aggressively as shippers redirect freight from West Coast and NY/NJ. Lower congestion, faster inland access, and improved customs efficiency make them attractive alternatives.
  • Virginia (Norfolk): Emerging as a compliance-friendly hub for retail replenishment and LTL volumes.
  • Outlook: East Coast growth remains steady, bolstered by nearshoring trends and retailers optimizing for faster U.S. inland distribution.
• Gulf Coast:
  • Houston: Stable volumes supported by re-routed Asian imports via Ensenada and increased Mexico cross-border traffic.
  • Veracruz & Ensenada: Seeing a measurable uptick in transload activity, particularly for Mexico–Asia container freight. Both are becoming strategic bypass hubs for shippers avoiding congestion and tariffs at LA Basin ports.
  • Outlook: Gulf Coast ports will remain hot through summer, driven by energy, automotive, and construction-linked imports. Expect inland hubs like Dallas and Atlanta to see associated volume pressure.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

• Did you know that at BM2 Freight, we uphold an 80% prebook percentage for shipments tendered to us with a 24-hour lead time. This proactive approach ensures that drivers are assigned to your shipments in advance, minimizing the risk of service failures, delays, and increased costs due to fallouts. Trust BM2 Freight to deliver your goods reliably and efficiently.
• Did you know that BM2 has completed 5,456 Food and Beverage shipments this year? Food and Beverage is our #1 pillar, showcasing our commitment to delivering fresh, high-quality products efficiently and reliably to meet the demands of our valued customers.
• BM2 has proudly onboarded 60 new customers in 2025, a testament to our unwavering commitment to delivering unparalleled customer satisfaction through elite service and best-in-class communication. Our dedicated team works tirelessly to understand each client’s unique needs, offering tailored logistics solutions that ensure seamless operations and foster long-term partnerships. By prioritizing transparency, responsiveness, and innovation, BM2 continues to set the industry standard, building trust and driving success for our growing customer base across diverse sectors.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 30-Jun-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Mexico diesel prices, 30-Jun-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Cargo Theft Surges to Record Levels as Holiday Season Approaches, Verisk CargoNet Analysis Shows | Verisk

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods

Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.497/gallon
  • Last Week: $3.514/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.017
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.397

Summary: Diesel prices declined slightly again this week, with the U.S. average falling $0.017 to $3.497 per gallon. The largest decreases came from the Midwest and West Coast, continuing a slow downward trend attributed to easing crude costs and stabilized refining output post-maintenance cycle.

Canadian diesel prices dropped 5.3% MoM following carbon tax policy shifts, while Mexico remains elevated at ~$5.42/gal (↑7.9% YoY) due to refinery bottlenecks and subsidy tapering.

Although tariffs remain in place, the U.S.–China tariff rollback and 90-day pause announced May 10 are expected to reduce pressure on fuel-intensive import flows. Analysts anticipate fuel cost stability in Q2.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (April – May) $0.03
  • Reefer Markets (April – May) $0.01
  • Flatbed Markets (April – May) $0.02

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As Q1 transitions into Q2, freight markets are facing mixed conditions. Reefer demand is expected to rise sharply with produce season gains in California, Florida, and Mexico, while flatbed markets tighten due to infrastructure projects and seasonal construction activity. Tariffs and cross-border volatility continue to impact key trade lanes, creating regional rate disparities. Van capacity remains loose but may stabilize if retail restocking picks up. Expect gradual tightening across reefer and flatbed markets.

• Reefer: Capacity continues to tighten as produce season peaks in California (berries, citrus), Texas (melons), and Florida. Late season bloom has compressed volume surges into a shorter window, driving 5–8% WoW spot rate jumps in key lanes.
• Flatbed: Rates hold steady after a seasonal surge in April. Projects in Atlanta, Houston, and the Midwest are sustaining demand into late May.
• Dry Van: Capacity is still relatively loose, but increased Midwest and Gulf restocking is causing mild tightening. Expect stronger van demand near port-adjacent markets due to modal shifts, could also see a warehouse glut happening again.
• Roadcheck Week (May 14–16): Expect reefer and flatbed to tighten temporarily as fleets take capacity offline. Brokers should quote live and prepare for mid-week volatility.

Trade & Tariff Updates:

• April 3: 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian auto parts and ag products went into effect.
• April 10: 125% tariff on Chinese goods imposed across key sectors.
• May 10: U.S. and China reached a tariff reduction deal, dropping most Chinese import tariffs to 45–65% with a 90-day pause on further hikes.
• Cross-border: Inspection times at Laredo, Nogales, and McAllen have eased from April highs, now averaging 2–4 hours (down from 6–8), but tariff complexity is keeping live quoting necessary.
• Market Watch:
  • Cross-border reefer and LTL volume stabilizing after April backlog.
  • U.S. port flows shifting toward Gulf and East Coast due to tariff-bypassing strategies (Virginia, Ensenada gaining share).
  • Ocean imports from China remain 30–40% below early Q1 volume, keeping West Coast intermodal muted.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

• Capacity: Gradually firming in Southeast and Gulf regions as retail restocking and port realignment flows increase.
• Rates: Slight WoW rise; LTR up to 4.67.
• Forecast: Rates could climb modestly through June, especially in transload-heavy hubs like Dallas and Chicago.

Reefer:

• Capacity: Tightest since early February. LTR now at 9.43.
• Rates: 6–9% increases in produce lanes (e.g., CA, FL, TX).
• Forecast: Expect continued upward momentum through early June. Weather and late harvest windows may extend demand tail.

Flatbed:

• Capacity: Softened slightly, but still tight in Southeast LTR now at 29.57.
• Rates: Holding near peak
• Forecast: Volumes will remain elevated in energy and housing sectors. Gulf construction lanes remain above national average by 10–15%.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

• Roadcheck Week will create temporary rate pressure in reefer and flatbed mid-May.
• Dry Van has room to tighten in June, especially near Gulf and East Coast ports.
• Cross-border freight remains a wildcard — stable now, but any retaliatory tariff news could swing rates again.
• LTL: Aftermarket parts, replenishment, and Canada/Mexico compliance issues are fueling demand.

Key Takeaways:

• Dry Van Demand: Capacity remains ample, but signs of firming are emerging in the Southeast and Midwest as retail restocking and import rerouting lift demand near key distribution hubs.
• Reefer Demand: Tightening continues across California, Florida, Texas, and Mexico, driven by compressed late-season produce flows (berries, citrus, melons). Expect elevated volumes through early June.
• Flatbed Demand: Sustained demand from industrial construction, energy, and infrastructure projects—especially around Houston, Atlanta, and the Gulf—keeps regional markets tight despite a slight national LTR dip.
• Tariff Impacts: The U.S.-China tariff rollback (May 10) and ongoing 25% duties on Mexico and Canada continue to reshape cross-border freight. Expect nearshoring to support long-term growth, but short-term volatility still requires live quoting, especially in Laredo, Nogales, and Ontario corridor lanes.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

• West Coast Ports: LA/Long Beach remain flat YoY. Imports down 20-30% vs Q1 due to China tariff fallout, Blank Sailings continue to rise
• East Coast: Port of Virginia gaining share (notably from NY/NJ), due to lower congestion and tariff diversion.
• Gulf Coast: Houston steady; Ensenada gaining cross-border traction as an alternative to LA for China/Mexico cargo.

BM2 NEWS

Bonded Freight and BM2

BM2 specializes in bonded freight solutions, helping you defer tariffs and speed up customs clearance amid changing trade regulations (effective March 4). We move bonded shipments like auto parts, electronics, industrial goods, steel, and perishables across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Why Choose BM2?

• Expedited bonded drayage at key ports/airports
• Customs expertise with proper documentation
• Reliable cross-border transport network
• Defer duties, avoid delays, and stay competitive

Recent News:

• Did you know that BM2 successfully manages over 13,000 shipments of fresh produce and food products each year? As produce season rapidly approaches, now is the perfect time to ensure your supply chain operates seamlessly. Partner with a trusted expert to handle your transportation needs, guaranteeing smooth and efficient operations throughout the busy season. BM2 is here to help!
• Did you know that 40% of BM2’s shipments are seamlessly handled through our exclusive BM2 Primary Carrier Network? At BM2, we prioritize quality over quantity, curating a select, high-performing network of top-tier service providers to transport your freight. Unlike larger, less discerning networks, our focused approach ensures an “asset-like” experience, consistently leveraging the same trusted drivers and carriers who deliver exceptional service to our customers. This dedication to excellence guarantees reliability and peace of mind for every load you ship with BM2.
• Did you know that BM2 expertly manages Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) shipments while playing a vital role in supporting the automotive industry? As new tariffs create challenges for automakers, the demand for shipping smaller loads of used auto parts is surging. At BM2, we’re committed to helping our customers thrive in this evolving supply chain landscape. With our tailored LTL solutions and deep industry expertise, we empower businesses to navigate these changes with confidence, ensuring efficient, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for every shipment.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Canada diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

Mexico diesel prices, 24-Mar-2025 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

CargoNet | The cargo theft prevention and recovery network

State of Freight Today (ftrintel.com)

US ports by volume: How maritime cargo trends are stacking up | Supply Chain Dive

Cargo Theft Surges to Record Levels as Holiday Season Approaches, Verisk CargoNet Analysis Shows | Verisk

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

Producer Price Index by Industry: Truck Trailer Manufacturing: Truck Trailers and Chassis, Axle Rating 10,000 Pounds or More (PCU3362123362121) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

E-Commerce Retail Sales (ECOMSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)

United States LMI Logistics Managers Index (tradingeconomics.com)

The Cass freight index | FRED Blog (stlouisfed.org)

Farmer’s Report – Produce Prices & Market Trends | US Foods