Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.831 gallon
- Last Week: $3.868/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.037
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.292

Summary: With crude prices recovering modestly as global demand picks up and supply concerns creeping in (especially ahead of winter), expect diesel surcharges to remain firm and perhaps tick up — unless unexpected refinery maintenance or global supply shocks intervene.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (October – November) $0.03
- Reefer Markets (October – November) $0.07
- Flatbed Markets (October – November) $0.03

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Summary: Shipment volumes continue to firm as we move deeper into peak holiday fulfillment season. Retailers are pushing aggressive restocking cycles after the initial black Friday push. This is creating sustained upward pressure on dry van capacity, particularly in port-to-DC and DC-to-retail corridors across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Midwest.

E-commerce activity is tracking above 2024 levels, with major platforms pulling forward replenishment loads to avoid last-minute crunches. These accelerated order patterns are tightening same-day, next-day, and regional truckload lanes a trend that typically peaks in mid-to-late November and may extend longer this year due to tighter labor and carrier availability.

Reefer markets remain elevated as grocers, wholesalers, and meal-kit providers build holiday-focused inventory. Demand continues to rise for proteins, dairy, produce, and packaged perishables that support Holiday celebrations. Border volumes (Nogales, McAllen) and PNW produce lanes remain busy as late-season apples, pears, and specialty items move toward national distribution centers. Cold-chain capacity remains tight and is expected to stay that way until holiday volumes taper near month-end.

As a whole, the market is behaving like a classic Q4 tightening cycle — but with added strain from regulatory pressure on driver availability, shifting import routes, and unpredictable early-winter weather risks. Shippers should expect continued firming through November, rising rates on high-demand lanes, and tighter windows for securing reliable coverage.

Reefer:Demand remains elevated for late season produce and perishables heading into holiday produce and bakery cycles. Border crossings (Nogales, McAllen) continue busy with fresh produce and imported perishables. Capacity remains constrained in major lanes — expect rates to hold or rise modestly.
Dry Van: Import-driven shipments via East and Gulf Coast ports continue to fill DCs and retail outlets for holiday stock. Inland oversupply zones remain softer, but corridors tied to major retailers, DCs, and holiday supply chains are seeing tightening.
Flatbed: Industrial demand (steel, pipe, manufacturing inputs) remains strong. Infrastructure and energy-sector freight continue to support volumes. Residential construction freight continues winding down for the season, easing some pressure — but ongoing tariff-driven demand keeps key lanes firm.

Major Capacity Disruptors:

FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Ruling (in effect):
- The rule remains a drag on driver availability, particularly affecting cross-border, team-haul, and long-haul capacity. Expect continued carrier churn, compliance backlogs, and tighter availability among smaller carriers and lease-ops relying on foreign-born drivers.
- Carriers and brokers should keep an eye on renewals and compliance lead times, especially for Q1 2026.
- DMV and SAVE verification delays are creating multi-week gaps where drivers fall out of service temporarily, tightening capacity in long-haul and regional lanes.
- Fleets with heavy concentrations of foreign-born drivers are beginning to rebalance networks, which may disrupt previously stable coverage patterns in key markets like Texas, Illinois, California, and New Jersey.
- Expect increased tender volatility from small carriers as they navigate compliance checks, documentation corrections, and delays tied to the new rule.
Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Industrial Demand
- Elevated demand for steel, pipe, specialty construction materials, and other tariff-impacted goods is maintaining pressure on flatbed freight lanes in industrial corridors (Midwest, Southeast, Gulf)
- Manufacturers are accelerating domestic sourcing on tariff-sensitive goods, driving additional demand into Midwest and Southeast industrial corridors.
- Cross-border freight (especially MX → US steel, produce, and parts) is adjusting to tariff differentials, creating inconsistent surges in certain border markets.
- Shifts in port selection are driving imbalances: routing from West Coast to Gulf/East Coast ports is amplifying demand around Dallas, Atlanta, Columbus, and Chicago, making backhaul capacity harder to secure
Holiday Season Staffing & Operational Slowdowns
- Warehouses, shippers, and carriers are entering peak-season labor shortages, creating delays in loading/unloading and reducing overall cycle time efficiency.
- Reduced weekend staffing at carriers and facilities during the second half of November increases tender rejections and drives more freight to the spot market.
Early Winter Weather & Routing Risk
- Storm systems across the Rockies, Upper Midwest, and Northeast are already causing intermittent delays, tightening regional capacity and rerouting freight into alternative corridors.
- Even minor early-season weather events temporarily reduce capacity availability as carriers avoid risk-prone lanes or shift assets south.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

Capacity: Tightening
Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.03 increase
Forecast: Continued upward pressure through late November as retail restocking and holiday replenishment intensify. Expect port-to-DC and DC-to-retail lanes to firm, especially in East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Southeast corridors. Inland non-retail lanes may remain softer.

Reefer

Capacity: Tightening
Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.07 increase
Forecast: Reefer demand likely stays strong — influenced by holiday grocery cycles and late-season produce flows. Border and PNW produce lanes will remain tight. Rates may spike if weather disrupts harvests or border delays occur.

Flatbed

Capacity: Moderately stable / selective tightening
Rates: Slight Downward trend. MoM $0.03 decrease
Forecast: Flatbed freight tied to industrial, infrastructure, and energy sectors should remain firm. Residential-construction freight will taper off with the season. Seasonal softness may appear outside industrial lanes, but selective strength persists where tariff-driven demand remains high.

Key Takeaways

The FMCSA non-domiciled CDL ruling continues to shrink the available driver pool. Capacity constraints in long-haul and cross-border lanes remain likely through Q4 and into early 2026.
Holiday-driven demand (retail, grocery, e-commerce) is fueling tightening across dry van and reefer equipment particularly for port- to-DC and DC-to-retail lanes. Early bookings and capacity commitments will be critical.
Tariff-induced demand for industrial freight is keeping many flatbed lanes active, particularly in Midwest and Southeast manufacturing corridors. Still, expect mixed softness in non-industrial/residential flatbed lanes.

Transportation Events

Manifest Vegas 2026

Dates: February 9-11 2026
Location: Las Vegas NV

Transportation & Logistics Council 52nd Annual Conference (BM2 Attending)

Dates: March 15-18 2026
Location: Franklin TN

Upcoming Holidays

Christmas Day

Date: December 25, 2025 (Thursday)
Impact: Nationwide closures; plan for backlogs and capacity constraints both leading into and following the holiday week.

New Years Eve/Day

Date: December 31 / January 1
Impact: Capacity crunch as drivers take off for the holidays.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

Did you know BM2 ranked # 96 on the largest private company on the 2025 Deloitte Cincinnati 100? This is the 4^th time BM2 has been recognized on this top 100 list! BM2’s ownership group, Kevin Ball, Matthew Mason, and Jeff Mason, credit our excellence only approach and high level customer service for the company’s accomplishment over the last 17 years. Find the article here: BM2 Freight ranked number 96 largest private company on the 2025 Deloitte Cincinnati 100 | LinkedIn
Did you know BM2 Freight operated straight through the holiday week to support our customers and carriers? While many logistics providers slow down, we stay fully engaged. Our team serviced over 600 shipments during Thanksgiving week alone, ensuring freight kept moving when others paused. Freight never stops and neither do we!