Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.718 gallon
  • Last Week: $3.620/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.098
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.145

Summary: With oil oversupply flagged by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and falling crude prices, expect fuel surcharges to remain stable or ease unless geopolitical disruption or refinery outages intervene.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (September – October) $0.02
  • Reefer Markets (September- October) $0.04
  • Flatbed Markets (September- October) $0.01

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Summary: the freight market is shifting firmly into Q4 with tightening conditions driven by holiday restocking, seasonal retail surges, and increasing parcel and e-commerce volumes. Over-the-road demand is climbing across major regional corridors, particularly in high-turn lanes supporting consumer goods and replenishment cycles. Simultaneously, summer-driven freight like construction materials, HVAC, and Pacific Northwest produce is tapering off, freeing up some capacity in flatbed and reefer markets—but not enough to offset tightening elsewhere.

A major development in reshaping the capacity landscape is FMCSA’s new rule on non-domiciled CDL holders, which took effect on September 29. This rule restricts access for many foreign-based drivers by imposing stricter eligibility and documentation standards. With over 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders in the U.S. pool, the impact will be felt by most —particularly for fleets and brokerages reliant on cross-border and long-haul coverage.

As driver availability contracts and demand intensifies, expect over-the-road capacity to tighten further heading into November. Rate pressure is building and the cost of securing compliant, reliable coverage is rising. Shippers and brokers should prepare with early booking strategies, live quoting, and contingency planning to stay ahead of seasonal volatility.

• Reefer: Late season apples from WA/OR are ramping, and fall harvests (pumpkins, squash) are coming to an end. Border crossings (Nogales, McAllen) remain active with produce and e commerce perishables. Capacity remains constrained in key lanes across the nation. Rates are on an upward trend.
• Dry Van: Import driven flows via East and Gulf Coast ports (Savannah, Charleston, Houston) are tightening capacity into retail/DC networks for holiday prep. Inland regions still show oversupply and slower demand. Capacity push for holiday season is putting pressure on rates to continue to climb.
• Flatbed: Infrastructure, energy, and utility project freight remains strong. Residential construction tails off in many regions, easing some capacity pressure, but industrial lanes and tariff impacted steel/pipe freight are holding tight.  

    Major Capacity Disruptors:

• FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Ruling Now in Effect
  • The rule could sideline tens of thousands of drivers, especially within team-based or cross-border fleets that rely on foreign-born operators. Brokerages should expect reduced availability in long-haul lanes, especially those requiring expedited or team service, and watch for carrier churn in late Q4 and early 2026 as renewals trigger compliance fallout.
  • Expected Impact on Capacity:
    • Driver Attrition: Immediate reduction in active CDL holders from expirations or failed verifications.
    • Delayed Renewals: Some drivers may fall out of service due to backlogs at DMV offices or SAVE verifications.
    • Cross-Border Tension: Increased pressure on domestic U.S. fleets to replace lost labor, particularly in drayage, regional, and last-mile roles.
    • Carrier Risk: Fleets relying heavily on immigrant driver pools may experience higher turnover and restricted availability, especially small carriers or lease-ops.
    • Rate Pressure: Expect upward pressure on spot rates in key regions (TX, CA, NJ, IL) starting late Q4 as capacity tightens gradually.
  • S.–China Tariff Truce: Transportation Market Impacts
    • On October 29, 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to a temporary one-year trade truce. The U.S. reduced tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports—from 57% to 47%—while China paused its planned rare-earth export restrictions. Though this agreement avoids escalation, it does not fully reverse tariffs or solve core structural issues.
  • Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded
    • The Trump administration’s June expansion of Section 232 tariffs now covers 407 additional product lines and $320B in imports. This includes auto parts, plastics, and specialty construction inputs. Midwest flatbed lanes (OH, IL, PA, AL) remain tight as industrial and construction freight flows surge. Domestic substitution and sourcing shifts are amplifying rate volatility in key manufacturing corridors like Detroit and Chicago.
  • Port Volumes Redirected, Inland Hubs Saturated
    • LA/Long Beach remain down ~10–12% YoY as more freight is funneled to Savannah, Charleston, Houston, and Veracruz. This is fueling rate swings and warehouse congestion in Dallas, Atlanta, and Chicago, particularly for time-sensitive or transloaded freight. Expect continued modal shifts through at least Q1 2026.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

• Capacity: Tightening
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.02 increase
• Forecast: Expect continued rate upward trend in warehouse-heavy corridors and mixed pressure near retail restocking zones as Q4 unfolds. Port-to-DC lanes may firm by mid-November..

Reefer

• Capacity: Tightening
  • Remains tight in WA/OR (apples, pears) and Southwest border zones (Nogales, McAllen) with fall produce in full swing. However, California and Florida volumes are tapering.
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $.04 increase
• Forecast: October peak expected in PNW and border produce lanes. Rates are likely to hold steady or rise modestly into early November due to harvest and holiday-driven e-commerce perishables.

Flatbed

• Capacity: Softening
  • Constrained in steel, pipe, and energy lanes (TX, AL, OK), but softening in residential corridors as construction season winds down. Infrastructure and grid freight still supporting volume in the Southeast and Midwest.
• Rates: Steady Trend. MoM no change.
• Forecast: As construction season comes to an end, expect seasonal softening with flatbed freight. Expect selective firmness through Q4, especially around industrial hubs and port-linked manufacturing zones.

Key Takeaways

• FMCSA Non-Domiciled CDL Ruling: Immediately impacted 200,000 drivers. Expected to impact additional drivers over the next 5 to 12 months as CDL renewals come up. This will have a big impact on carriers, drivers, and capacity nationwide.
• Q4 Holiday Surge & Capacity Compression: As we enter the peak holiday shipping window, nationwide capacity is expected to tighten, particularly across major intermodal and retail distribution corridors (e.g., SoCal → Midwest, Savannah → Northeast, Dallas → Chicago). Coupled with elevated seasonal demand, this is likely to drive upward pressure on spot rates and tender rejections, especially for time-sensitive freight and replenishment loads.
• U.S.–China Trade Truce Effect on Import Volumes: The recent 10% tariff reduction under the U.S.–China trade truce is expected to stimulate short-term import growth, particularly for consumer electronics, packaged goods, and seasonal inventory. This shift coincides with increased retail procurement for the holidays, potentially amplifying the capacity crunch with increased volumes expected to arrive in late November.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

• Did you know BM2 Freight attended the CSCMP EDGE 2025 conference this October in National Harbor, MD? Our VP of Sales – Pete Katai, joined industry leaders to discuss emerging trends, tech-driven freight solutions, and transportation strategy. BM2’s presence reflects our growing influence in the logistics space and our commitment to staying ahead of market shifts to better serve our customers.
• Did you know BM2 had a record breaking Q3? We broke out all time shipment count record and customer acquisition record. Businesses across the U.S. and Canada are turning to BM2 for dependable, high-touch service that prioritizes transparency, compliance, and operational precision. Our growth is a direct result of putting shippers first—offering tailored solutions backed by data-driven strategy and proactive communication.
• Did you know that BM2 Freight attended the Cargo Theft and Transportation Summit hosted by Verisk CargoNet? Snr. Operations Support Manager – Carla Bay represented BM2 at this conference below are her insights after attending the conference:
  • “I had the privilege of attending the Cargo Theft and Transportation Summit hosted by Verisk CargoNet & Travelers.  Cargo theft is still a huge concern and cost drain for the industry, with strategic theft being the hardest to combat.  With the cargo theft boom following the pandemic, there was just not enough education and knowledge in the industry to combat it.  Fortunately, with organizations like Verisk CargoNet and Travelers, they are educating not only those in the industry but also law enforcement across the country A major thread was CDL issuance, especially non-domiciled CDLs. Freight demand isn’t letting up, so more non-residents have been pushed through licensing to keep freight moving. One example cited: Kentucky issued 1,775 CDLs in 2021, 1,859 in 2022, 1,545 in 2023—and 53,686 in 2024. With stepped-up enforcement of existing CDL requirements, expect some capacity to tighten as questionable licenses are revoked. Plan accordingly. Bottom line: cargo thieves are adapting. So must we. Brokers, shippers, and intermediaries must execute real due diligence—every load, every handoff, every time. Trust, but verify. Partner with the correct transportation providers and reduce your risk of theft!

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. EIA

Regional disparity grows as truckload capacity tightens – FreightWaves

Interim Final Ruling: Restoring Integrity to the Issuance of Non-Domiciled Drivers Licenses (CDL) | FMCSA

Drivers speaking up are mostly against FMCSA’s emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs, public comments show

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/largest-capacity-purge-in-history-coming

State of Freight – FTR Intel

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) – FRED

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) – FRED

Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths | Reuters