Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.749 gallon
- Last Week: $3.739/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.010
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.210

Summary: U.S. diesel prices declined for the second straight week, led by Midwest and East Coast softness. California diesel remains near $5/gal, contributing to regional surcharges. Canadian and Mexican fuel prices held steady.

Outlook: Fuel volatility remains tied to Middle East tensions and domestic inventory shortages. Strategic planning around Gulf and West Coast rates recommended.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (August – September) $0.02
- Reefer Markets (August – September) $0.01
- Flatbed Markets (August – September) $0.03

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As September nears its close, the freight market is shifting from summer’s peak produce and construction volume to a blend of fall harvest freight, back-to-school replenishment, and pre-Q4 retail inventory cycles. Equipment-specific pressure remains uneven, with sharp divergence between hot and soft regions. While national capacity continues to rebalance post-August, fragmentation persists across equipment types, driven by regional cycles, tariff redirection, and lane-specific velocity shifts.

Reefer: Capacity remains tight across key fall harvest regions. Pacific Northwest volumes are surging as the apple season hits peak swing (WA/OR), while early pumpkins, late berries, and citrus flows are holding firm in CA, TX, and MX. Near the border (Nogales, McAllen), LTR remains elevated due to sustained produce demand and longer lead times driven by customs inspections and cross-border congestion. Limited backhaul options continue to amplify repositioning costs in outbound U.S. lanes.

Flatbed: Southeast and Gulf states (TX, AL, LA) remain active due to grid hardening projects, steel shipments, and late-season energy-related freight. However, signs of tapering in residential construction and roofing demand are emerging, especially north of the I-40 corridor. Midwest infrastructure lanes (IL, IN, OH) are holding firm on steel coil and pipe freight linked to utility and industrial retrofits, but spot rate urgency is easing week over week.
Dry Van: A bifurcated market continues to define van freight. Capacity is tightening around East Coast and Gulf ports (Savannah, Norfolk, Charleston, Houston) as retailers move to finalize inbound holiday inventory and restock shelves ahead of October demand. Inland, however, large swaths of the Midwest remain oversupplied. Elevated inventories and soft consumer pull-through are muting load velocity. Spot rate swings are increasingly directional—tight for port-to-retail runs, soft for backhauls and Midwest loops with no import adjacency.

Other Disruptors:

New Tariffs on Trucks, Pharma, & Furniture: Beginning October 1, the U.S. is enacting sweeping tariffs: 25% on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets/vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and in extreme cases 100% on branded pharmaceuticals if manufacturing isn’t U.S.-based. Freight impact: Trailer and chassis costs will rise. Flatbed and van lanes carrying automotive, furniture, or hospital supplies may see cost pass-throughs. Margin compression is possible on mixed commodity loads.
Cargo Theft Surge Along Mexico Border: Q3 reports show a marked spike in cargo theft as criminal tactics evolve. Mexico continues to account for a disproportionate share of cross-border thefts. Freight impact: High-risk lanes (Nogales, Laredo, McAllen) require stricter carrier vetting, higher insurance, and buffer in pricing for risk.
Cross-Border Freight Strained by Enforcement & E-Commerce: Mexico exports are up 6.3% YoY, led by non-auto manufacturing (computers, electronics) CBP enforcement remains tight, especially for compliance-sensitive freight. E-commerce flows are surging, but visa pauses and cabotage scrutiny are creating operational risk for late-day cross-border loads.
Steel Derivative Tariff Expansion Intensifies: The expanded scope of Section 232 now threatens “derivative” goods—components that contain trace steel or aluminum content. European industries warn of broad inclusion. Freight impact: Flatbed capacity in industrial regions (IL, OH, PA) stays tight, especially inbound coil/beam lanes. Tariff uncertainty stifles quoting aggressiveness.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

 Capacity: Loosening in the Midwest and central U.S. as warehouse inventories remain elevated and restocking demand lags. Coastal lanes (Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk) continue tightening with transload and e-commerce demand. LTR down slightly MoM but still above 6.5.
Rates: Rate strength clustered around Southeast/Gulf import lanes and urban retail hubs.
Forecast: Expect stability in import-driven lanes through mid-October, followed by modest Q4 uplift as holiday inventories move. Midwest remains a drag on national rate average.

Reefer

Capacity: Still tight in PNW (apples, pears) and TX/AZ border zones (avocados, citrus, early fall crops). Carrier scarcity continues in compliance-sensitive lanes. DAT LTR is up sharply YoY.
Rates: Spot premiums emerging near McAllen, Yakima, and Nogales.
Forecast: Produce taper will ease strain in October, but border cross-border food, pharma, and e-commerce will hold demand. Freight planners should anticipate backhaul repositioning costs in lower-yield areas.

Flatbed

Capacity: Still historically tight in the South and Midwest, supported by steel tariffs, solar panel component imports, and industrial project freight. Slight relief in residential construction lanes.
Rates: Regional heights remain in the Southeast, followed by Texas and Great Lakes corridors.
Forecast: Expect tariff-impacted industrial lanes to carry elevated premiums through year-end. Monitor utility and pipeline projects in TX/AL/OK for Q4 surge opportunities.

Key Takeaways

Dry Van: Coastal capacity is tightening around East/Gulf ports (Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk) due to retail restocks and transload activity. Midwest remains soft with lingering inventory drag; brokers should price defensively in these corridors. Expect mild Q4 uplift in import-driven lanes, but broader recovery still fragmented.
Reefer Demand: Spot pressure remains near McAllen, Nogales, and Yakima, driven by apples, citrus, and cross-border produce. Load-to-truck ratios are up sharply YoY, signaling carrier scarcity. Seasonal easing likely in October, but compliance-sensitive freight will keep key lanes active.
Flatbed Demand: Capacity still tight in TX, AL, PA, led by industrial freight tied to tariffs (steel, solar, EV components). Roofing and residential construction slowing, but public works and grid upgrades are sustaining demand. Expect ongoing rate pressure through Q4 in tariff-affected regions.

Transportation Events

CSCMP EDGE 2025 (BM2 Attending)

Dates: October 5–8, 2025
Location: National Harbor, MD
Focus: End-to-end supply chain strategy, transportation optimization, and technology-driven logistics innovation.
Why It Matters: As one of the industry’s premier events, CSCMP EDGE brings together top shippers, logistics professionals, TMS providers, and supply chain academics. BM2’s attendance ensures direct engagement with decision-makers and insight into evolving best practices.

Upcoming Holidays

Columbus Day

Date: Monday, October 13, 2025
Impact: Federal holiday; minimal disruption to truckload or LTL flows. Government-related freight may pause.

Halloween (Retail Surge Period)

Date: Thursday, October 31, 2025
Impact: Final parcel consolidation and last-mile retail staging activity begins the week prior. Expect increased dry van volumes tied to seasonal consumer goods.

Veterans Day

Date: Tuesday, November 11, 2025
Impact: Some LTL carriers may operate on reduced terminal hours. National freight flows typically remain unaffected.

Thanksgiving Day

Date: November 27, 2025 (Thursday)
Impact: Nationwide closures; major disruptions to freight movement. Expect reduced operations on November 28 (Friday) as many carriers run limited schedules.

Christmas Day

Date: December 25, 2025 (Thursday)
Impact: Nationwide closures; plan for backlogs and capacity constraints both leading into and following the holiday week.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

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