Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

• Diesel National Averages:
  • This Week: $3.500 gallon
  • Last Week: $3.544/gallon
  • Weekly Change: $0.044
  • Year-over-Year Change:  $0.004

Summary: As we move toward January, crude prices remain relatively stable with modest support from winter energy demand. At this point, diesel surcharges are expected to hold near current levels, with limited upside unless colder-than-normal weather, refinery disruptions, or broader global supply issues emerge.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

• National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
  • Dry Van Markets (November – December) $0.19
  • Reefer Markets (November – December) $0.14
  • Flatbed Markets (November – December) $0.06

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Summary:

December closed out with a dramatic surge in truckload rates across all major modes, as market dynamics intensified heading into the final stretch of the holiday shipping season. National tender rejections climbed above 13%, marking their highest point since April 2022, and signaling a significant shift in carrier leverage and tightening capacity.

This month’s rate pressure was driven by a combination of strong seasonal demand, carrier scarcity, and accelerated replenishment cycles. Retailers and e-commerce giants leaned heavily on expedited freight to meet last-minute fulfillment windows, creating persistent demand in port-to-DC, DC-to-store, and regional next-day delivery lanes especially across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Midwest.

E-commerce volumes outpaced 2024 levels, with load tenders becoming more volatile amid tighter labor pools and reduced driver availability. Carriers began selectively accepting freight, prioritizing higher-yield loads and leaving shippers to scramble for coverage, especially in time-sensitive, high-service corridors.

Adding to the market strain is the ongoing federal compliance crackdown on drivers, which continues to reduce the available pool of qualified operators. Heightened enforcement around hours-of-service violations, drug and alcohol testing, and safety records has sidelined a growing number of drivers, disproportionately impacting smaller carriers and owner-operators. This regulatory pressure is further thinning already tight capacity, amplifying the upward momentum in spot and contract rates as carriers with clean records become increasingly selective.

• Reefer: Demand surged as holiday perishables moved in volume. Late-season produce from Mexico and the PNW kept cross-border and long-haul reefer lanes active. Tight cold-chain capacity led to noticeable rate spikes in key corridors.
• Dry Van: Import-driven freight into DCs remained strong, especially in East and Gulf Coast ports. E-commerce replenishment loads and late-season restocks elevated demand in both national and regional lanes. Van rates climbed sharply in most high-demand markets.
• Flatbed: Steel, pipe, and manufacturing inputs sustained industrial demand. While some seasonal softening in construction-related freight occurred, tariff-influenced volume kept flatbed capacity tight and rates high.

    Major Capacity Disruptors:

• Tender Rejections Surging – Driving the Biggest Spot Rate Spike YTD
  • The single most impactful force shaping the freight market in December has been the surge in tender rejections, which jumped above 13% nationally — the highest level since April 2022. This sudden tightening of primary routing guide compliance has pushed a massive volume of freight into the spot market, igniting the largest rate spike seen so far this year. All three major modes — dry van, reefer, and flatbed — saw sharp increases in rates, with high-demand corridors seeing double-digit percentage jumps. Shippers are experiencing significantly tighter coverage windows, while carriers are exercising pricing power as available capacity becomes more selective and fragmented. Expect elevated volatility to persist into early January as end-of-year disruptions collide with ongoing labor and network resets.Tariffs, Trade Shifts & Industrial Demand
• FMCSA Compliance Crackdown Further Tightens Driver Pool
  • The FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL rule, now fully in effect, is putting measurable strain on carrier capacity — especially for fleets dependent on cross-border, long-haul, and team drivers. The regulation is disproportionately affecting foreign-born and immigrant drivers, many of whom operate under small carriers or lease-operator models. DMV delays, SAVE system backlogs, and compliance renewal issues are forcing otherwise eligible drivers out of service for weeks at a time. The result is a growing gap in qualified driver availability, especially in capacity-critical markets like Texas, California, Illinois, and New Jersey. Carriers with a high percentage of impacted drivers are being forced to rebalance networks or abandon previously consistent lanes. Shippers are already seeing higher tender volatility and unexpected fall-offs, particularly from smaller carriers navigating documentation corrections or new FMCSA requirements. As enforcement ramps up, Q1 2026 compliance cycles will present further challenges, and networks dependent on foreign labor will need proactive mitigation strategies.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

• Capacity: Tightening
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $0.19 increase
• Forecast: Continued upward pressure through late December as tender rejections surge and spot market activity accelerates. Expect port-to-DC and DC-to-retail lanes to remain tight, especially in East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Southeast corridors. Inland non-retail lanes may still see intermittent relief, but overall pressure is rising across the board.

Reefer

• Capacity: Tightening
•  Rates: Upward trend. MoM $0.14 increase
• Forecast: Reefer demand remains strong heading into the final holiday grocery and perishables push. Late-season produce flows from border crossings and the PNW continue to tighten capacity. Rates are expected to hold firm or rise further, particularly if early-winter weather or compliance delays impact carrier availability.

Flatbed

• Capacity: Tightening
• Rates: Upward trend. MoM $0.06 increase
• Forecast: Flatbed volumes remain supported by industrial, energy, and tariff-driven freight. While residential construction continues to taper seasonally, infrastructure and manufacturing activity are maintaining pressure. Expect rates to stay elevated in core lanes, with tightening pockets emerging in key regions like the Southeast and Gulf.

Key Takeaways

• Tender rejections surged above 13%, the highest level since April 2022, forcing more freight into the spot market and driving the largest rate increases seen year-to-date across all modes.
• Spot and contract rates climbed sharply as carriers gained pricing power amid tightening capacity, with the strongest pressure felt in dry van and reefer lanes tied to retail, port, and DC networks.
• The FMCSA compliance crackdown, including the non-domiciled CDL ruling, continues to shrink the qualified driver pool, worsening capacity constraints in long-haul and cross-border lanes and reinforcing upward rate momentum heading into early 2026.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

• Did you know BM2 added over 80 new customers in 2025? Reflecting the strength of our customer-first approach and growing recognition across multiple verticals. From mid-market manufacturers to Fortune 500 retailers, our ability to deliver dependable, mode-flexible solutions continues to attract shippers looking for long-term logistics partners. This growth spans across dry van, reefer, flatbed, and expedited services — reinforcing BM2’s position as a trusted 3PL in an increasingly volatile market.
• Did you know BM2’s shipment volume increased by more than 5,000 loads year-over-year, marking a significant milestone in our operational growth and service capacity. This surge demonstrates not only rising customer demand, but also the scalability of our internal teams, technology platforms, and carrier network. Our ability to execute at a higher volume — without compromising service — is a direct result of strong carrier partnerships, continuous process improvements, and the dedication of our operations and support teams.
• BM2 Freight ranked #96 on the 2025 Deloitte Cincinnati 100 list of largest privately held companies! This marks our fourth appearance on this prestigious list — a reflection of our consistent growth and performance. Owners Kevin Ball, Matthew Mason, and Jeff Mason credit this achievement to BM2’s 17-year commitment to excellence, customer service, and operational execution.

INDUSTRY NEWS TO KNOW

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. EIA

Truckload capacity is falling faster than demand – FreightWaves

State of Freight – FTR Intel

Bracing for tighter truck capacity, shippers rebid contracts – FreightWaves

Drivers speaking up are mostly against FMCSA’s emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs, public comments show

FMCSA issues emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs – FreightWaves

Truck Tonnage Index (TRUCKD11) – FRED

All Employees, Truck Transportation (CES4348400001) – FRED

Trump shaves China tariffs in deal with Xi on fentanyl, rare earths | Reuters