Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.734 gallon
- Last Week: $3.708/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.026
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.109

Summary: Diesel prices rose modestly, led by California (+1.1% WoW). Canadian prices declined on strong refinery output and favorable exchange rates. Mexican prices are stabilizing following subsidy shifts.

Outlook: Fuel prices are expected to remain rangebound through September unless disrupted by refinery outages or global tensions. Regional fuel surcharges will remain in place, particularly for freight originating on the West Coast or crossing international borders.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (July – August) $0.04
- Reefer Markets (July – August) $0.07
- Flatbed Markets (July – August) $0.05

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As September unfolds, the freight market is transitioning from peak produce and construction to retail restocking, fall harvests, and infrastructure project closeouts. Modal tightness varies by lane:

While national capacity continues to rebalance post-August, market conditions remain fragmented across equipment types and regions.

Reefer: capacity remains tight in pockets, especially around the Pacific Northwest and U.S.–Mexico border crossings (e.g., Nogales, McAllen), where late-season berries, citrus, and early apple harvests are sustaining volume. This tightness is further compounded by limited backhaul opportunities, forcing carriers to reposition assets and accept higher lead times.

Flatbed: demand remains elevated, but capacity is becoming more available in the Southeast and Midwest as residential construction slows and roofing season begins to taper. Still, regions like Texas and Alabama remain hot spots due to steel coil shipments, infrastructure projects, and utility freight tied to grid upgrades and pipeline builds.
Dry Van: markets are bifurcated: capacity near ports like Savannah, Charleston, and Norfolk is tightening as retail restocking and transload flows increase, while Midwest corridors remain oversupplied, bogged down by elevated warehouse inventories and weaker domestic consumer demand. This imbalance is producing wide spot rate variability depending on lane direction, port proximity, and exposure to tariff-diverted imports.to rerouted Asian imports and tariff-driven shifts, while capacity in the Midwest stays loose amid elevated warehouse inventories and continued demand softness.

Other Disruptors:

Steel & Aluminum Tariffs Expanded: The Trump administration expanded Section 232 tariffs to 407 additional product categories, now covering $320B in imports. Affected items include auto parts, plastics, construction materials, and specialty chemicals, driving rate volatility and constrained flatbed capacity in OH, IL, PA, AL. Domestic substitution is accelerating, especially in Detroit and Chicago, where industrial freight is concentrating.
China Tariff Reinstatement: The Section 301 exclusions were extended through November 29, 2025, delaying full reinstatement. However, rerouting through Mexico and Canada continues, sustaining cross-border dry van and LTL demand. Expect renewed pressure in Q4 as the extension nears expiration.
Cross-Border Freight Strained by Enforcement & E-Commerce: Mexico exports are up 6.3% YoY, led by non-auto manufacturing (computers, electronics) CBP enforcement remains tight, especially for compliance-sensitive freight. E-commerce flows are surging, but visa pauses and cabotage scrutiny are creating operational risk for late-day cross-border loads.
Port Volume Redirection & Inland Stress: West Coast ports (LA/Long Beach) are down ~10–12% YoY, while Savannah, Norfolk, Charleston, Houston absorb diverted volumes. Inland hubs (Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago) face rate swings due to warehouse saturation and rail imbalances. Blank sailings and schedule disruptions are common as carriers adjust to demand shifts.
Middle East Tensions Escalate: Diesel futures spiked ~8% to $2.37/gal, following Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. U.S. diesel inventories are 15% below average, amplifying cost sensitivity. Insurance premiums and route diversions around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing freight costs and planning complexity.
Labor & Rail Watch: U.S. railroads show intermodal growth (+1.2% YoY) but carload softness, reflecting uneven industrial demand. New Jersey’s AB5-style labor proposal could tighten drayage capacity by reclassifying owner-operators. Canada: Low water levels at Montreal are triggering Low Water Surcharges; labor tensions remain unresolved, posing Q4 disruption risk.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Dry Van

Capacity: Tightening near Gulf and East Coast ports as import flows shift inland. LTR declined ~5% MoM from June peaks but remains healthy.
Rates: National average is flat MoM, up 0.5% YoY, Regional highs in order: Midwest, Southwest, and closing out the highs Southeast
Forecast: Expect firm port-to-inland freight through late September. Watch for hurricane season disruptions and Q4 retail ramp-up.

Reefer

Capacity: Tight in WA/OR (berries, apples), TX/NM border zones (citrus, melons). Border lanes strained due to cross border produce, compliance-sensitive freight, and CBP inspections.
Rates: Flat MoM, down 1.3% YoY Load-to-truck ratios surged 44% YoY, indicating carrier scarcity
Forecast: Seasonal produce will taper in October, but border compliance and cross-border e-commerce will keep demand firm.

Flatbed

Capacity: Still tight in TX, Southeast, Midwest, driven by steel, pipe, and energy freight. Seasonal easing in roofing and residential construction is offset by infrastructure and utility projects.
Rates: National average is down from August, but still up 1.2% YoY. Regional highs in order: Southeast, Southwest, and finally Midwest
Forecast: Expect rate pressure to persist through Q4, especially in tariff-affected lanes and energy corridors.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

Dry Van: Tightening near Gulf and East Coast ports (Savannah, Charleston, Norfolk) due to retail restocking, transload flows, and e-commerce replenishment. The Midwest remains oversupplied, with elevated warehouse inventories and soft consumer demand creating loose capacity and rate compression.
- Outlook: Expect lane-specific firmness in port-to-inland corridors through late September. Watch for hurricane season disruptions, which could tighten capacity further in coastal regions.
Reefer: Among the tightest segments, especially in WA/OR (late-season berries, apples), TX/NM (citrus, melons), and border crossings (Nogales, McAllen). Compliance-sensitive freight and cross-border produce are sustaining demand despite seasonal tapering.
- Outlook: Conditions will ease slightly in October as harvests wind down, but border lanes will remain active due to ongoing enforcement and e-commerce-driven perishables
Flatbed: Still historically tight, especially in TX, AL, PA, driven by steel coil shipments, energy infrastructure, and grid-related utility freight. Residential construction is slowing, but industrial and public works projects are keeping demand elevated.
- Outlook: Tariff volatility and infrastructure spending will sustain rate pressure through Q4, particularly in Midwest industrial lanes and Gulf Coast corridors.
Cross border freight:
- Mexico: Persistent 4–6 hour delays at key crossings (Laredo, Nogales, El Paso) due to heightened customs enforcement and compliance inspections. Non-auto manufacturing exports (electronics, appliances, textiles) are surging, driving dry van and LTL demand.
- Canada: Volume rising, supported by Ontario’s $1B Protect Financing Program and Alberta’s pipeline progress. Montreal port operations face risk from low water levels, triggering surcharges and rerouting to Halifax.
- Outlook: Nearshoring trends and USMCA strategies will continue to drive strong cross-border flows. Live quoting remains critical for high-compliance freight.
LTL: Stable and resilient, with growth sustained by aftermarket parts, industrial shipments, and cross-border compliance-sensitive freight. Border regions like Laredo, Detroit, and Nogales remain high-volume hot spots. Outlook: Industry expects 1.6% volume growth in 2025, supported by tech-driven optimization, parcel integration, and rate stabilization. LTL carriers are investing in automated hubs and dynamic pricing tools to manage volatility.

Key Takeaways

Dry Van: Strategic freight reshuffling is underway, with rerouting through Mexico and Canada to avoid Section 232 and 301 duties. This is fueling cross-border dry van and LTL demand, especially in compliance-heavy sectors.
Reefer Demand: Strategic freight reshuffling is underway, with rerouting through Mexico and Canada to avoid Section 232 and 301 duties. This is fueling cross-border dry van and LTL demand, especially in compliance-heavy sectors.
Flatbed Demand: Steel tariffs and infrastructure projects are driving sustained demand in TX, AL, PA, and Midwest corridors. Energy, pipe, and utility freight remain strong, while roofing and residential construction begin to taper. Carrier exits and backlog orders are amplifying spot rate swings.
Tariff Impacts: Steel tariffs and infrastructure projects are driving sustained demand in TX, AL, PA, and Midwest corridors. Energy, pipe, and utility freight remain strong, while roofing and residential construction begin to taper. Carrier exits and backlog orders are amplifying spot rate swings.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

West Coast:

LA/Long Beach: Still operating ~10–15% below YoY. Blank sailings and reduced China-origin bookings persist.
Seattle/Tacoma: Flat volumes; intermodal capacity remains underutilized.

Outlook: Modal leakage to Gulf and East Coast ports continues amid tariff-driven shifts.

East Coast:

Savannah & Charleston: Volume gains supported by improved customs and rail efficiency. Retailers favoring these ports for Q4 replenishment.
Virginia (Norfolk): Strong LTL and compliance-sensitive flows, especially in consumer-packaged goods.

Outlook: Nearshoring and import staging will sustain growth through Q4.

Gulf Coast:

Houston: Steady volumes with growing inland tightness. Chassis shortages and export imbalances remain a concern.
Veracruz & Ensenada: Emerging as key Mexico–Asia–U.S. bypass hubs, supporting tariff-diverted freight.

Outlook: High energy and industrial flows are tightening Dallas–Atlanta–Chicago corridors.

Transportation Events

CSCMP EDGE 2025 (BM2 Attending)

Dates: October 5–8, 2025
Location: National Harbor, MD
Focus: End-to-end supply chain strategy, transportation optimization, and technology-driven logistics innovation.
Why It Matters: As one of the industry’s premier events, CSCMP EDGE brings together top shippers, logistics professionals, TMS providers, and supply chain academics. BM2’s attendance ensures direct engagement with decision-makers and insight into evolving best practices.

Upcoming Holidays

Thanksgiving Day

Date: November 27, 2025 (Thursday)
Impact: Nationwide closures; major disruptions to freight movement. Expect reduced operations on November 28 (Friday) as many carriers run limited schedules.

Christmas Day

Date: December 25, 2025 (Thursday)
Impact: Nationwide closures; plan for backlogs and capacity constraints both leading into and following the holiday week.

BM2 NEWS & Highlights

Did you know BM2 continues to grow? July was a record-breaking month for us — both in new customer acquisitions and in total load count. More and more shippers are seeing why BM2 is the difference maker in their supply chain. We keep things simple by focusing on what matters most: integrity, clear communication, and excellence in execution.
BM2 joined the Bitfreighter team at the Karen Cameron User Golf Tournament benefiting the ALS Foundation. Our team at BM2 Freight had an amazing time connecting with industry peers, supporting a meaningful cause, and celebrating community. The highlight? Walking away with the Best New Customer Award 🏆! We’re proud to be part of this growing network and supporting such a great cause.
Did you know over 70% of the food in the U.S. is moved by truck? That means your morning avocado toast, your Friday night pizza, and even your Thanksgiving turkey all hitched a ride on a trailer before reaching your plate. At BM2 Freight, we love being part of that story. Whether it’s fresh produce, frozen goods, or anything in between—we make sure food gets where it needs to go, when it needs to be there.