Industry Market Trends

GENERAL MARKET TRENDS

Fuel Index:

Diesel National Averages:
- This Week: $3.497/gallon
- Last Week: $3.514/gallon
- Weekly Change: $0.017
- Year-over-Year Change: $0.397

Summary: Diesel prices declined slightly again this week, with the U.S. average falling $0.017 to $3.497 per gallon. The largest decreases came from the Midwest and West Coast, continuing a slow downward trend attributed to easing crude costs and stabilized refining output post-maintenance cycle.

Canadian diesel prices dropped 5.3% MoM following carbon tax policy shifts, while Mexico remains elevated at ~$5.42/gal (↑7.9% YoY) due to refinery bottlenecks and subsidy tapering.

Although tariffs remain in place, the U.S.–China tariff rollback and 90-day pause announced May 10 are expected to reduce pressure on fuel-intensive import flows. Analysts anticipate fuel cost stability in Q2.

Reference: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update – U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

RPM Monthly Movers:

National RPM Month-to-Month Changes:
- Dry Van Markets (April – May) $0.03
- Reefer Markets (April – May) $0.01
- Flatbed Markets (April – May) $0.02

POTENTIAL MARKET DISRUPTORS

Seasonal Trends:

As Q1 transitions into Q2, freight markets are facing mixed conditions. Reefer demand is expected to rise sharply with produce season gains in California, Florida, and Mexico, while flatbed markets tighten due to infrastructure projects and seasonal construction activity. Tariffs and cross-border volatility continue to impact key trade lanes, creating regional rate disparities. Van capacity remains loose but may stabilize if retail restocking picks up. Expect gradual tightening across reefer and flatbed markets.

Reefer: Capacity continues to tighten as produce season peaks in California (berries, citrus), Texas (melons), and Florida. Late season bloom has compressed volume surges into a shorter window, driving 5–8% WoW spot rate jumps in key lanes.
Flatbed: Rates hold steady after a seasonal surge in April. Projects in Atlanta, Houston, and the Midwest are sustaining demand into late May.
Dry Van: Capacity is still relatively loose, but increased Midwest and Gulf restocking is causing mild tightening. Expect stronger van demand near port-adjacent markets due to modal shifts, could also see a warehouse glut happening again.
Roadcheck Week (May 14–16): Expect reefer and flatbed to tighten temporarily as fleets take capacity offline. Brokers should quote live and prepare for mid-week volatility.

Trade & Tariff Updates:

April 3: 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian auto parts and ag products went into effect.
April 10: 125% tariff on Chinese goods imposed across key sectors.
May 10: U.S. and China reached a tariff reduction deal, dropping most Chinese import tariffs to 45–65% with a 90-day pause on further hikes.
Cross-border: Inspection times at Laredo, Nogales, and McAllen have eased from April highs, now averaging 2–4 hours (down from 6–8), but tariff complexity is keeping live quoting necessary.
Market Watch:
- Cross-border reefer and LTL volume stabilizing after April backlog.
- U.S. port flows shifting toward Gulf and East Coast due to tariff-bypassing strategies (Virginia, Ensenada gaining share).
- Ocean imports from China remain 30–40% below early Q1 volume, keeping West Coast intermodal muted.

MARKET PREDICTIONS & RATE TRENDS

Capacity & Rate Trends:

Dry Van:

Capacity: Gradually firming in Southeast and Gulf regions as retail restocking and port realignment flows increase.
Rates: Slight WoW rise; LTR up to 4.67.
Forecast: Rates could climb modestly through June, especially in transload-heavy hubs like Dallas and Chicago.

Reefer:

Capacity: Tightest since early February. LTR now at 9.43.
Rates: 6–9% increases in produce lanes (e.g., CA, FL, TX).
Forecast: Expect continued upward momentum through early June. Weather and late harvest windows may extend demand tail.

Flatbed:

Capacity: Softened slightly, but still tight in Southeast LTR now at 29.57.
Rates: Holding near peak
Forecast: Volumes will remain elevated in energy and housing sectors. Gulf construction lanes remain above national average by 10–15%.

Overall Capacity Rebalancing & Forecast:

Roadcheck Week will create temporary rate pressure in reefer and flatbed mid-May.
Dry Van has room to tighten in June, especially near Gulf and East Coast ports.
Cross-border freight remains a wildcard — stable now, but any retaliatory tariff news could swing rates again.
LTL: Aftermarket parts, replenishment, and Canada/Mexico compliance issues are fueling demand.

Key Takeaways:

Dry Van Demand: Capacity remains ample, but signs of firming are emerging in the Southeast and Midwest as retail restocking and import rerouting lift demand near key distribution hubs.
Reefer Demand: Tightening continues across California, Florida, Texas, and Mexico, driven by compressed late-season produce flows (berries, citrus, melons). Expect elevated volumes through early June.
Flatbed Demand: Sustained demand from industrial construction, energy, and infrastructure projects—especially around Houston, Atlanta, and the Gulf—keeps regional markets tight despite a slight national LTR dip.
Tariff Impacts: The U.S.-China tariff rollback (May 10) and ongoing 25% duties on Mexico and Canada continue to reshape cross-border freight. Expect nearshoring to support long-term growth, but short-term volatility still requires live quoting, especially in Laredo, Nogales, and Ontario corridor lanes.

Port Adjustments & Supply Chain Rebalancing:

West Coast Ports: LA/Long Beach remain flat YoY. Imports down 20-30% vs Q1 due to China tariff fallout, Blank Sailings continue to rise
East Coast: Port of Virginia gaining share (notably from NY/NJ), due to lower congestion and tariff diversion.
Gulf Coast: Houston steady; Ensenada gaining cross-border traction as an alternative to LA for China/Mexico cargo.

Transportation Events

Upcoming Holidays

Procurment & Supply Chain LIVE: Chicago, June 4th – 5th, 2025

Memorial Day, May 26th, 2025

Independence Day, July 4, 2025

Labor Day, September 1, 2025

BM2 NEWS

Bonded Freight and BM2

BM2 specializes in bonded freight solutions, helping you defer tariffs and speed up customs clearance amid changing trade regulations (effective March 4). We move bonded shipments like auto parts, electronics, industrial goods, steel, and perishables across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico.

Why Choose BM2?

Expedited bonded drayage at key ports/airports
Customs expertise with proper documentation
Reliable cross-border transport network
Defer duties, avoid delays, and stay competitive

Recent News:

Did you know that BM2 successfully manages over 13,000 shipments of fresh produce and food products each year? As produce season rapidly approaches, now is the perfect time to ensure your supply chain operates seamlessly. Partner with a trusted expert to handle your transportation needs, guaranteeing smooth and efficient operations throughout the busy season. BM2 is here to help!
Did you know that 40% of BM2’s shipments are seamlessly handled through our exclusive BM2 Primary Carrier Network? At BM2, we prioritize quality over quantity, curating a select, high-performing network of top-tier service providers to transport your freight. Unlike larger, less discerning networks, our focused approach ensures an “asset-like” experience, consistently leveraging the same trusted drivers and carriers who deliver exceptional service to our customers. This dedication to excellence guarantees reliability and peace of mind for every load you ship with BM2.
Did you know that BM2 expertly manages Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) shipments while playing a vital role in supporting the automotive industry? As new tariffs create challenges for automakers, the demand for shipping smaller loads of used auto parts is surging. At BM2, we’re committed to helping our customers thrive in this evolving supply chain landscape. With our tailored LTL solutions and deep industry expertise, we empower businesses to navigate these changes with confidence, ensuring efficient, reliable, and cost-effective transportation for every shipment.